TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,902,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,145,431

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,902,410 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,274 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x758b…4bfbbacked Yes70c368,146$257,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110,383.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes56c291,188$162,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,968.079334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes48c111,529$53,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,585.3510127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes62c55,501$34,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,903.384459.1%26 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes51c47,778$24,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,603.4125337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes59c46,545$27,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,972.7218036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e4e…411abacked No42c45,096$19,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,121.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No4c43,401$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.574413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1588…66e4backed Yes17c41,085$6,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,261.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+502.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6e1…ec41backed Yes16c39,939$6,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,676.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+537.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x781f…c9febacked Yes42c34,007$14,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,823.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes80c32,570$25,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,613.341154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+76%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ab…383dbacked Yes15c31,796$4,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,062.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+235.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes76c30,755$23,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,247.743135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No40c29,575$11,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,737.6312345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0624…053fbacked Yes61c28,626$17,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,093.27837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No8c27,181$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.514334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a65…25adbacked Yes76c26,393$20,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,285.47450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed No51c25,000$12,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,65020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x607b…2592backed Yes77c23,512$18,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,409.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes69c23,032$15,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,109.635060%30 W · 20 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+131.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No40c22,694$9,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,038.271338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb659…c375backed Yes62c22,214$13,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,361540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-35.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No6c22,046$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.196883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe96…65acbacked No21c20,107$4,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,171.28862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf67f…31cfbacked No36c20,044$7,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,215.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes44c18,985$8,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,548.844425%11 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fb7…3297backed No12c18,761$2,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,183.884129.3%12 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87ef…563bbacked Yes53c18,752$9,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,803.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes17c17,683$3,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,636.314012.5%5 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1295…5cfdbacked Yes53c17,550$9,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,248.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes72c17,411$12,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,822.854126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x712b…37aebacked Yes52c16,980$8,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,101.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes77c15,191$11,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,547.774221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No44c14,678$6,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,431.99053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No30c14,542$4,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,325.828821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x622e…ee81backed Yes30c14,203$4,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,892.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb3…2868backed Yes55c13,685$7,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,127.46580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes44c13,315$5,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,429.141060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd5…8971backed Yes33c12,504$4,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,366.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca47…3ef4backed No38c12,439$4,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,770.83250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x604a…da1abacked Yes76c12,316$9,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,946.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes62c12,200$7,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,592.556439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7b9…ad8fbacked No60c12,127$7,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,219.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No56c11,838$6,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,659.836030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed No46c10,803$4,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,998.022339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66f1…2dd9backed No12c10,789$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes67c10,777$7,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,596.628035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa225…b903backed Yes51c10,694$5,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,233.36714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5718…db20backed Yes55c10,673$5,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,803.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No18c10,553$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.5312133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No38c10,547$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,049.916535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No19c10,526$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.334035%14 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7a6…8117backed Yes14c10,445$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,954.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+600.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa112…d215backed No67c10,409$6,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,962.57633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick74cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes64c10,263$6,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,703.351866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3749…7ad0backed Yes65c10,121$6,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,507.41560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb609…11e5backed Yes15c10,095$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,552.36425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+63.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes12c10,000$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,805.558640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No21c10,000$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.67317.8%13 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x897d…90c9backed Yes62c9,947$6,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,745.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fd…3228backed Yes67c9,700$6,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed No43c9,689$4,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,166.340%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes64c9,393$6,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,383.682152.4%11 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ba2…18a5backed No9c9,307$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cf…fa69backed Yes72c8,951$6,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,489.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x205e…1925backed Yes45c8,873$3,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9091136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x335d…8f03backed Yes63c8,809$5,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,269.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Yes11c8,777$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,776.68475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+195.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1a4…e9adbacked Yes32c8,516$2,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,761.641145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No7c8,327$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.066633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed Yes64c8,324$5,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,992.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yes69c8,160$5,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.28475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+135.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e39…07ddbacked Yes61c8,143$4,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,163.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes72c8,125$5,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,273.4428434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Yes63c8,034$5,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,972.831338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd547…f7a8backed Yes63c7,817$4,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,883.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x101e…eaf4backed No9c7,570$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.981513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-62.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa24f…6c63backed No79c7,184$5,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,655.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb74e…e0a6backed No7c7,027$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-79.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes60c6,900$4,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,787.924736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes17c6,809$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,682.51922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2025…129ebacked Yes63c6,708$4,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,489.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes56c6,567$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,857.943724.3%9 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes44c6,429$2,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,574.143537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes56c6,114$3,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,706.59631.3%30 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked No10c6,105$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.082416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-59.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd2d…c092backed No66c6,000$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,96010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes24c6,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5802227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Yes54c5,932$3,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,748.211020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-52%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed Yes60c5,693$3,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,261.83850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes65c5,623$3,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,963.5211454.4%62 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0deb…9b0fbacked Yes64c5,600$3,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0021457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb242…31a0backed No6c5,503$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked No14c5,458$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.931631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No35c5,453$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.717451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No16c5,449$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.5214947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2510…471abacked Yes61c5,410$3,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,135.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad67…8cd3backed No6c5,380$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.75825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe26c…c705backed No10c5,332$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.