TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb6e1…ec41

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
179
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Premier League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT8839.8%35 W · 53 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 88 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mavericks vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$52.04
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Team World vs. Team USA Stripesbacked Team World · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$88.4
Will the USA Stripes team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$22.03
Spurs vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$280.42
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$37
Pistons vs. Raptorsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+100%+$20
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+92.3%+$92.77
Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 210.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$40.4
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+108.3%+$21.67
76ers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+132.6%+$26.51
Grizzlies vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+96.1%+$19.22
Cavaliers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$37.43
Pistons vs. Hornetsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+75.4%+$30.18
Spread: Magic (-10.5)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$51.67
76ers vs. Suns: O/U 221.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Warriors vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+72.4%+$21.72
Hornets vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$159.99
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 219.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Clippers vs. Kings: O/U 222.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Bucks (-1.5)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+100%+$20
Showing 25 of 88 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT5356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 53 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Predators vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+58.7%+$17.62
Penguins vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Islanders vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Blues vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+51.5%+$10.3
Red Wings vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+78.6%+$15.71
Canadiens vs. Jetsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+100%+$20
Blackhawks vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+75.4%+$15.09
Kraken vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+81.5%+$16.3
Maple Leafs vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Senators vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+53.8%+$10.77
Penguins vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+93.1%+$130.31
Capitals vs. Flyersbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Jets vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+72.4%+$21.72
Blues vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+72.4%+$14.48
Canadiens vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+78.6%+$15.71
Sabres vs. Panthersbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+108.3%+$32.5
Islanders vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+78.6%+$23.57
Senators vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Golden Knights vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+92.3%+$75.07
Kings vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$31.87
Predators vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42.5
Maple Leafs vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Jets vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Avalanche vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$30.38
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+54.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$972Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$972.22
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+85.2%+$92
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+49.3%+$98.51
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+53.8%+$10.77
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$13
All 5 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+127.3%+$50.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+537.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$6,263Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+537.7%+$33,676.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Senegal vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+185.7%+$66.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+138.1%+$26.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-01-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+122.2%+$195.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+66.7%+$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$903Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$902.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Appalachian State Mountaineersbacked Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.