TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$928,465
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$927,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $928,465 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Magic47c576,793$271,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305,700.3387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bucks53c350,000$185,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185,50087144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Bucks54c150,000$81,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,999.9640446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Bucks53c100,000$53,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,999.9943148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Magic46c59,306$27,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,025.011,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bucks53c50,000$26,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,5002,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Magic49c19,388$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,887.7649246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Magic49c19,388$9,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,887.7611351.3%58 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks53c18,799$9,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,983.219,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Magic46c18,600$8,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,043.8929245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Bucks55c13,636$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Bucks50c13,356$6,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,678.141,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Bucks53c12,436$6,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,591.081,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bucks51c11,979$6,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,087.242,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Magic50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00016640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Bucks53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,299.9735450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Magic46c8,634$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,634.4533447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16cf…7d64backed Magic49c8,271$4,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,218.432045%9 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Bucks49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Magic47c7,234$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,834.0438750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Bucks54c7,200$3,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,888.1844352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic50c6,745$3,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,373.438,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Bucks53c6,648$3,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,523.5665750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Magic46c6,643$3,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,587.270246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bucks52c6,427$3,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,342.062,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Bucks51c6,300$3,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,212.9858449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf154…27e3backed Magic49c5,510$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,810.29051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Magic47c5,307$2,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,793.2819445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Magic47c5,213$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,762.7741649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Magic50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50010553.3%56 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Magic46c4,985$2,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,691.962,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Magic50c4,344$2,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,17237747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Magic48c4,169$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,168.7556453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Magic46c4,101$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.4425049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Magic51c4,037$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,978.2629352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Bucks53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12033945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Magic47c3,338$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.320948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Magic52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Bucks53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.9943348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Magic49c2,680$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.5924450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e7c…cbaabacked Bucks49c2,036$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.616944.9%31 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic47c2,010$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.974,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Magic50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00038946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Bucks51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic48c1,966$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.014,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic47c1,915$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.952,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic45c1,914$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.33,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Magic49c1,630$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.9130446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic45c1,555$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.256,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e95…4183backed Bucks54c1,519$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8201346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Magic47c1,413$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.776258.1%36 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks51c1,410$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.43,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks47c1,211$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.53,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a33…d0e2backed Magic48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.675468.5%37 W · 17 L+9.4wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+30%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Bucks50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50044252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Bucks52c999.95$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.9729149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Magic46c815.63$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.1323850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Bucks52c800$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41667252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Bucks54c764.81$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41314450.7%73 W · 71 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac1f…c6adbacked Bucks54c729$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.065950.8%30 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Magic51c672$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33062347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Bucks54c600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32435531.8%113 W · 242 L+1.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…2275backed Bucks53c600$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3182339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…93ccbacked Bucks54c600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3246533.8%22 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Bucks53c599.99$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31822845.2%103 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Bucks59c561.8$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.043,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Bucks54c556$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.2421045.2%95 W · 115 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Bucks54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27066645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Bucks49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24595641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Magic47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5320754.1%112 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Magic49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.161,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8126…9d18backed Bucks53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2124953.1%26 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic49c397.61$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.781,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Magic47c340.43$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4346346.4%215 W · 248 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x011b…fcc3backed Bucks50c320$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16021743.8%95 W · 122 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Bucks52c307.69$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16023847.1%112 W · 126 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Bucks52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1563154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Bucks53c279.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.455846.8%261 W · 297 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6f…5d6fbacked Bucks54c274.81$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.423144.2%102 W · 129 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed Bucks52c261.54$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13623143.3%100 W · 131 L-13.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Bucks51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.595548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Bucks49c230.18$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.391,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3cc…c029backed Bucks54c209.55$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7516250%81 W · 81 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Bucks51c209$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5991148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Magic48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3332952.9%174 W · 155 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b73…45d9backed Bucks54c203.7$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11034342.9%147 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d89…d5a6backed Magic50c200.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.121855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Magic52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3111157.7%64 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae9f…4967backed Bucks52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005952.5%31 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ff…5311backed Bucks52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa373…b6dcbacked Bucks53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017845.5%81 W · 97 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Magic49c187.16$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4551146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0899…0fc0backed Bucks53c185$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Bucks52c169$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8841048.3%198 W · 212 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f8…5bf4backed Bucks54c167.24$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.314341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Bucks54c167.09$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2333837.3%126 W · 212 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic49c151.44$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.13,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7942…f92cbacked Bucks55c145.45$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807643.4%33 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Magic51c137$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1338453.4%205 W · 179 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.