TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Franz Wagner: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,808
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,808 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0c05…fabfbacked No55c1,868$1,036 inWon+$831.427673.7%56 W · 20 L+11.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+26.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes46c1,475$671 inLost-$671.271,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked No54c923.44$499 inWon+$424.7817151.5%88 W · 83 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes46c615.38$283 inLost-$283.085,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Yes47c278.93$130 inLost-$1305352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9507…9ae5backed Yes41c274.44$113 inLost-$113.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked No59c242.89$143 inWon+$99.5947354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No56c230.76$129 inWon+$101.4645657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Yes40c208.19$83 inLost-$83.1943543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No59c100$59 inWon+$4190863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4546…a3f2backed Yes39c84.02$33 inLost-$3330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc0d…78a5backed Yes41c83.61$34 inLost-$34.283831.6%12 W · 26 L-6.5wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed Yes46c78.32$36 inLost-$36.0321357.7%123 W · 90 L+10.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Yes41c60.98$25 inLost-$2560346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No59c60.98$36 inWon+$251,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No60c50$30 inWon+$2021672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x35aa…ba97backed No62c48.39$30 inWon+$18.3912257.4%70 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Yes45c31.36$14 inLost-$14.1119051.6%98 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes47c30.76$14 inLost-$14.462,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed No60c30.08$18 inWon+$12.0940849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe056…dd58backed Yes41c30$12 inLost-$12.32623.1%6 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-45.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No63c29$18 inWon+$10.8432866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No59c18$11 inWon+$7.3822774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.