TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bucksof Bucks, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,906

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,455 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Magic74c536.29$396 inLost-$396.248956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Bucks17c300$51 inWon+$24914636.3%53 W · 93 L+16.4wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+58.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb724…a3cabacked Bucks29c172.41$50 inWon+$122.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Bucks36c141.19$51 inWon+$90.3626545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Bucks29c120$35 inWon+$85.243246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Bucks31c107.68$33 inWon+$74.418957.1%108 W · 81 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d99…934cbacked Magic76c36$27 inLost-$27.36650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad0f…0e3cbacked Magic75c33$25 inLost-$24.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf1…8594backed Magic75c30$22 inLost-$22.4430%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedf0…753bbacked Magic76c29$22 inLost-$21.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc771…69fbbacked Magic75c29$22 inLost-$21.75540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf90…8591backed Magic75c28$21 inLost-$20.96425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3a4…7941backed Magic74c26$19 inLost-$19.36757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9783…d484backed Magic76c24$18 inLost-$18.24560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb7…a1a8backed Magic75c20$15 inLost-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…fd9fbacked Magic74c19$14 inLost-$14.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d56backed Magic75c18$13 inLost-$13.41520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb68c…16c8backed Magic75c18$14 inLost-$13.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick72cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe91d…22b0backed Magic75c18$14 inLost-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8edb…7fd6backed Magic75c18$14 inLost-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53c8…408dbacked Magic76c18$14 inLost-$13.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47aa…ab1cbacked Magic76c17$13 inLost-$12.92650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8420…58c1backed Magic76c17$13 inLost-$12.9230%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39e9…7d6abacked Magic75c17$13 inLost-$12.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25ad…85bbbacked Magic76c17$13 inLost-$12.92540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-41%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc366…443ebacked Magic76c16$12 inLost-$12.16450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecd8…1282backed Magic76c14$11 inLost-$10.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd748…dd55backed Magic74c14$10 inLost-$10.36425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-64.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.