TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Magic: 1H O/U 112.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,765
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,765 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf2eb…562dbacked Over58c53,709$30,948 inLost-$30,947.76837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Under43c20,585$8,802 inWon+$11,783.4511653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcd…355abacked Under42c16,163$6,788 inWon+$9,374.547536%27 W · 48 L-9.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under42c6,930$2,911 inWon+$4,019.471547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under43c4,020$1,723 inWon+$2,297.1595651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Under42c3,481$1,462 inWon+$2,018.9531644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…60d5backed Under47c1,067$500 inWon+$567.214264.3%27 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+27%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Under42c726.19$305 inWon+$421.1931455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Over55c620$339 inLost-$338.828929.4%85 W · 204 L-13.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over57c580.53$331 inLost-$330.93,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under42c499.99$210 inWon+$289.991,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Under46c400$184 inWon+$2164050%20 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e0…461fbacked Under43c364.57$157 inWon+$207.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Under42c226$95 inWon+$131.0847354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Under43c162.79$70 inWon+$92.795558.2%32 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd9b…fc27backed Under45c111.11$50 inWon+$61.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under43c65.67$28 inWon+$37.432,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5442…2f88backed Under43c46.51$20 inWon+$26.514763.8%30 W · 17 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.