NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfe872dae078a5db4cccbdddd4580b9e08962d438c49cf730d4b47b6284140be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 56c | 30,701$17,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,075.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Magic | 47c | 27,233$12,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,433.48 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Magic | 44c | 17,463$7,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,779.32 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bucks | 53c | 17,372$9,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,207.18 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked Bucks | 57c | 15,892$8,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,999.42 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Magic | 44c | 11,341$4,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,350.91 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Magic | 43c | 11,273$4,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,425.81 | 292 | 45.5%133 W · 159 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 54c | 9,688$5,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,278.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Magic | 44c | 6,389$2,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,577.81 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Bucks | 53c | 6,346$3,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,363.17 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks | 57c | 4,444$2,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,518.37 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 46c | 4,322$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,347.79 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Bucks | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Bucks | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.99 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Magic | 44c | 3,499$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.44 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks | 54c | 2,011$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.8 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 44c | 1,458$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.37 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Magic | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Bucks | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bucks | 58c | 689.66$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 42c | 595.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.56 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks | 55c | 461$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.21 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bucks | 59c | 397.1$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.45 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Magic | 44c | 352.27$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.27 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Bucks | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Bucks | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Bucks | 74c | 231$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Bucks | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Bucks | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Bucks | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Magic | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Bucks | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Magic | 44c | 90.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Bucks | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…691bbacked Bucks | 46c | 65.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed Bucks | 53c | 62.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…7ddebacked Bucks | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…815bbacked Bucks | 47c | 57.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe975…9d22backed Bucks | 51c | 57.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Bucks | 69c | 57.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 214 | 59.3%127 W · 87 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…4cc6backed Bucks | 44c | 56.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…1e06backed Bucks | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Bucks | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 332 | 49.7%165 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Bucks | 59c | 44.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fa…3d88backed Bucks | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeef…5667backed Bucks | 48c | 41.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Magic | 43c | 39.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Bucks | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Magic | 45c | 27.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf2…5803backed Bucks | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Bucks | 56c | 25.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Bucks | 59c | 18.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 180 | 60.6%109 W · 71 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-5.5)Bucks won
- Bobby Portis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Bucks vs. MagicMagic won
- Bucks vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Magic: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 217.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 218.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 219.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 220.5Under won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.