NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70eef46cd219de9b1ae89919e30dda9a4620000d41f80c9a106bd5668a6d8582
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 5,916$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 73c | 5,608$4,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.91 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 30c | 3,088$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.98 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 3,069$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 70c | 1,620$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.99 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 55c | 1,318$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.9 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Over | 55c | 980$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 68c | 804.63$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.67 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Over | 53c | 790.57$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 680.39$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.9 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Under | 75c | 557.39$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 45c | 494.11$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.76 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a2…5745backed Under | 61c | 348.29$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 34c | 302.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 63c | 290.17$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 285.22$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.99 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 65c | 236.62$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 35c | 192.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 71c | 189.68$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 173.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Over | 45c | 165.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 46c | 144.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 39c | 140.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…ce09backed Under | 77c | 130.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 128 | 65.6%84 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Over | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…fc12backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…c7e6backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 80.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 36c | 78.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Over | 42c | 65.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d47bbacked Over | 52c | 64.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 46c | 59.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 57c | 48.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 27c | 44.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 59c | 44.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 55c | 37.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Under | 60c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 308 | 40.9%126 W · 182 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 79c | 33.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285d…f500backed Under | 63c | 24.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.7wins | -0.24per pick | 56cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Under | 64c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 218.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-5.5)Bucks won
- Bobby Portis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Bucks vs. MagicMagic won
- Bucks vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Magic: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 217.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 219.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 220.5Under won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.