NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d7f1108aea571fad519705071addec62f133bc8089fcaca35cf43139b88b77d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bucks | 48c | 9,278$4,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,433.51 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 52c | 3,320$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Magic | 55c | 2,467$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.98 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Magic | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.4 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic | 52c | 1,538$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.24 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 52c | 1,459$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.88 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Bucks | 45c | 1,400$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Magic | 53c | 1,174$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.05 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Bucks | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks | 33c | 925.38$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.6 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Magic | 55c | 909.02$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.06 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Magic | 56c | 896.83$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.83 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic | 55c | 547.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.84 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Bucks | 45c | 530$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Magic | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…07fcbacked Bucks | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Magic | 55c | 434.51$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.51 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Bucks | 44c | 325.18$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.08 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Bucks | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 48c | 238.07$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.98 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…57f0backed Bucks | 53c | 226.3$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Magic | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Magic | 60c | 167.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 51c | 164$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Magic | 52c | 159.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Bucks | 46c | 109.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Bucks | 42c | 108$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bucks | 47c | 76.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Magic | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Magic | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Magic | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Magic | 56c | 60.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…ec75backed Bucks | 47c | 58.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 51c | 57.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Bucks | 45c | 54.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Magic | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed Magic | 56c | 46.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…1adfbacked Magic | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 45c | 45.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Magic | 57c | 41.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed Bucks | 49c | 40.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Bucks | 48c | 38.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Magic | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Bucks | 42c | 30.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Magic | 59c | 29.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…20d7backed Bucks | 45c | 27.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Bucks | 46c | 24.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Magic | 56c | 21.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…44f6backed Magic | 58c | 17.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-5.5)Bucks won
- Bobby Portis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Bucks vs. MagicMagic won
- Bucks vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Magic: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 217.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 218.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 219.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 220.5Under won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.