TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 220.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,334 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c2,107$1,039 inLost-$1,039.374,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under51c2,000$1,020 inWon+$979.9924549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c672.97$328 inLost-$328.489,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Over50c500$250 inLost-$25018747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under50c400$200 inWon+$2003,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d90…9845backed Under51c392.16$200 inWon+$192.161060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under51c364$184 inWon+$179.922,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under50c351.68$177 inWon+$174.763,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d53…eb1abacked Over50c280.95$140 inLost-$139.674362.8%27 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over50c265.88$133 inLost-$132.941,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Under51c196.07$100 inWon+$96.0763447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…878cbacked Under52c96.15$50 inWon+$46.152650%13 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bbe…03c5backed Over49c62.99$31 inLost-$31.085240.4%21 W · 31 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Over49c40.82$20 inLost-$2048740.7%198 W · 289 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Under51c36.57$19 inWon+$17.9235551.3%182 W · 173 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d0…60a1backed Over51c33.14$17 inLost-$16.914643.8%64 W · 82 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Under51c29.51$15 inWon+$14.5633653.9%181 W · 155 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under50c28.68$14 inWon+$14.2295047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x285d…f500backed Over40c28.09$11 inLost-$11.162832.1%9 W · 19 L-6.7wins-0.24per pick56cpaid-50.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6cd6…16abbacked Under51c20$10 inWon+$9.810558.1%61 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.