TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 217.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,928

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,853 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under43c3,649$1,567 inWon+$2,082.479,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dee…3d1bbacked Over57c2,365$1,348 inLost-$1,3484654.3%25 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Over57c1,000$570 inLost-$57018747.1%88 W · 99 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under43c976.56$420 inWon+$556.644,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over27c492.54$134 inLost-$134.143,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under74c365$270 inWon+$94.98,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb2…8083backed Over58c200.09$116 inLost-$1162050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Over57c175.44$100 inLost-$10072250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under43c175.02$76 inWon+$99.284,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Under62c160$99 inWon+$60.843246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under44c113.64$50 inWon+$63.6456547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over55c111.11$61 inLost-$61.113,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under45c111.11$50 inWon+$61.1133730.3%102 W · 235 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66cb…3111backed Over57c87.21$50 inLost-$49.711145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Under27c62.12$17 inWon+$45.3523047.4%109 W · 121 L+19.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9239…a358backed Over55c60$33 inLost-$32.851656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5608…ff5bbacked Under47c50$24 inWon+$26.51560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over40c49.25$20 inLost-$19.523,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee57…b2b6backed Over58c48.82$28 inLost-$28.323330.3%10 W · 23 L-6.3wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-44.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x712c…717bbacked Over57c35.09$20 inLost-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-52.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82d0…60a1backed Over58c34.48$20 inLost-$2014643.8%64 W · 82 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Under43c25.58$11 inWon+$14.5850841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Over51c24.77$13 inLost-$12.7240849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf10…691bbacked Over78c13.98$11 inLost-$10.9613751.1%70 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf5…815bbacked Over78c13.98$11 inLost-$10.9615453.2%82 W · 72 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe975…9d22backed Over79c13.7$11 inLost-$10.8418055%99 W · 81 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.