TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$691,165
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$810,759

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $691,165 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 507 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No28c94,703$26,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,290.576,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes52c69,455$35,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,588.8114544.8%65 W · 80 L-11.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No48c41,722$19,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,868.412,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No37c35,200$12,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,987.0210057%57 W · 43 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked No48c23,744$11,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,456.747750.6%39 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No33c23,535$7,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,807.152,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No17c16,308$2,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,725.884,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes55c16,098$8,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,272.931,21241.7%505 W · 707 L-1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed No49c14,679$7,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,192.716142.6%26 W · 35 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaebc…fb65backed Yes57c12,989$7,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,586.191978.9%15 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick64cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed No14c10,315$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.1313727%37 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No46c10,153$4,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,668.5985048.4%411 W · 439 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed Yes51c9,790$4,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,797.14148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed No50c9,621$4,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,810.5620545.4%93 W · 112 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x681d…3fa1backed No2c9,245$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.52110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Yes56c8,924$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,923.9317634.1%60 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No44c8,776$3,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,877.232,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed No49c8,245$4,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,026.9411346%52 W · 61 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed No51c7,909$4,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,033.596550.8%33 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes52c6,571$3,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,132.3330143.9%132 W · 169 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b90…b995backed Yes55c6,400$3,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,880250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed No48c6,158$2,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,985.577147.9%34 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked No48c5,921$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,864.643855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes56c5,643$3,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,475.0341344.8%185 W · 228 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No48c5,561$2,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,661.2121253.8%114 W · 98 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dee…3d1bbacked Yes53c5,287$2,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,495.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Yes50c5,211$2,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,605.693545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e73…c4ecbacked No1c5,193$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.126015%9 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick15cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Yes54c4,067$2,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,872.0420448.5%99 W · 105 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes70c3,571$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.437650%38 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes55c3,500$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,57517042.9%73 W · 97 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No45c3,471$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.9527750.9%141 W · 136 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes54c3,454$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.2625648%123 W · 133 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked No49c3,410$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,670.72951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked No30c3,314$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00034628.6%99 W · 247 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed No45c3,000$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.510743%46 W · 61 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1660…5598backed Yes51c2,925$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf7f…4d2abacked No47c2,814$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Yes52c2,706$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.912448.4%60 W · 64 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Yes52c2,563$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.46580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+53.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a32…0188backed Yes54c2,500$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.939756.7%55 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed No47c2,347$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.094052.5%21 W · 19 L+7.1wins+0.18per pick35cpaid+50.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc079…8accbacked Yes50c2,305$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.53043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Yes51c2,300$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed No1c2,270$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.336023.3%14 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes76c2,188$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.5722458.9%132 W · 92 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed No46c2,174$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006354%34 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No34c2,168$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.271,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135a…5315backed Yes55c2,153$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.41742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked No49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.091266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+30.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Yes55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9006066.7%40 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0209347.3%44 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1909…a2c9backed Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b62…2e59backed No44c2,000$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.994862.5%30 W · 18 L+6.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+38.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa201…ab01backed No46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes50c1,999$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.6815470.8%109 W · 45 L+22.5wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Yes52c1,987$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.543458.8%20 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No7c1,975$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1756453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No44c1,966$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.7179650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Yes56c1,933$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.338448.8%41 W · 43 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Yes55c1,753$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.3245751.2%234 W · 223 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6741…b3bcbacked Yes52c1,731$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed No48c1,667$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8009250%46 W · 46 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d74…cfb2backed Yes56c1,580$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.62429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb5…7349backed Yes57c1,539$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.572548%12 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Yes70c1,508$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.4913834.1%47 W · 91 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Yes67c1,462$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.057227.8%20 W · 52 L-11.2wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-51.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Yes54c1,296$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.36549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5858…dc6bbacked Yes54c1,237$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.912250%11 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked Yes56c1,153$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.482339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x703c…ae21backed Yes50c1,114$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.14560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed No46c1,100$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5062962.1%18 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+41.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2247…71c2backed No3c1,065$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed No47c1,035$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.8233753.1%179 W · 158 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe01c…7f6cbacked Yes52c1,028$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.49875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf509…67b9backed Yes54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4605759.6%34 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked Yes51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4905044%22 W · 28 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+17.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf72c…f818backed Yes48c999.96$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.98837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+62.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0724…9091backed No46c997.83$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4593357.6%19 W · 14 L+6.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+52.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes54c982$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.723100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e79…3902backed No47c935$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.95450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7350…9dc0backed Yes54c919.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.5818239.6%72 W · 110 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked No45c914.1$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.85257.7%30 W · 22 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa79…f645backed Yes55c909.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.333923.1%9 W · 30 L-6.2wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-47.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Yes55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.0911443.9%50 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cd…05f7backed Yes55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.091136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd261…b663backed Yes71c900$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2581421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+112.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes56c800$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3526540%26 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes53c766.04$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.046139.3%24 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Yes50c700$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3506654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee81…328cbacked No2c694.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.98633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48d9…227fbacked No32c677.63$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.841010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-78.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7211…c51bbacked Yes54c667.96$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.263060%18 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Yes53c653.03$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.7720246.5%94 W · 108 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed No47c652.57$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.0621049%103 W · 107 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x064e…4347backed No31c645.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007237.5%27 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc92…88d4backed Yes51c621.78$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.34560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+35.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ad…1ab8backed Yes54c618$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.282133.3%7 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-40.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked No49c613$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.378552.9%45 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48d6…46a6backed Yes50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3006835.3%24 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.