Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c2d9b438fa96721578253778cc8fb259df80e1bb6bbc313137bdd40474cfe14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf209…97e1backed Yes | 25c | 67,683$16,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,992.39 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 36,848$27,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,047.94 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 30,784$22,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,798.18 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07c…11a0backed Yes | 24c | 19,089$4,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,640 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 5c | 9,773$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.16 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 2c | 7,056$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.17 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 6,736$5,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.55 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 4,635$3,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.98 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…4352backed No | 78c | 4,610$3,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.77 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x447e…9710backed No | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 75c | 2,596$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.96 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8accbacked Yes | 24c | 2,306$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.44 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cd…05f7backed Yes | 24c | 2,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Yes | 25c | 1,904$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26f1…b5f6backed Yes | 24c | 1,458$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 22c | 1,185$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.71 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 77c | 1,181$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.69 | 210 | 49%103 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked No | 77c | 1,125$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…6321backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes | 23c | 960$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Yes | 23c | 851.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 25c | 794.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Yes | 24c | 750$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed No | 78c | 590.68$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…b628backed Yes | 24c | 530$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2147…a818backed Yes | 10c | 517.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 23c | 427.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 76c | 416.66$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 76c | 409.75$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 76c | 396.04$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.05 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 75c | 332$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 76c | 306.33$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…cfb2backed Yes | 23c | 304.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 23c | 223$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f2…1640backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…e891backed Yes | 24c | 195.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +297%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 79c | 177.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Yes | 24c | 164.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 122 | 36.1%44 W · 78 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…694cbacked Yes | 23c | 156.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 9c | 144.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 423 | 24.3%103 W · 320 L | -36.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 15c | 137$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 322 | 22.4%72 W · 250 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f5…700cbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…d270backed Yes | 24c | 124.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Yes | 23c | 123.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…dcafbacked Yes | 24c | 120.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 75c | 119.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…5379backed No | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 23c | 98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed No | 78c | 86.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 202 | 46.5%94 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 301 | 43.9%132 W · 169 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked No | 77c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 31%27 W · 60 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…3b90backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…399bbacked Yes | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…8984backed No | 77c | 40.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949d…374cbacked No | 76c | 40.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 233 | 25.8%60 W · 173 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed6a…841ebacked No | 78c | 16.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 77c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-04?Yes won
- Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.