TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Hornets, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,302,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,405,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,302,256 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,012 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Hawks47c503,822$234,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234,507.6272648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Hornets55c414,929$227,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187,018.8848343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Hawks45c325,631$145,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145,980.792,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bd7…373ebacked Hornets55c272,727$150,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122,727.139350.5%47 W · 46 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Hawks47c227,821$105,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105,957.5340446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Hornets54c200,000$108,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,0009043.3%39 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa41…a7a1backed Hawks45c146,667$66,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Hornets53c135,991$72,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,915.7619560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Hornets54c101,686$54,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,775.5614358.7%84 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Hornets54c86,150$46,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,429.832,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Hornets54c75,422$40,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,744.0460351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hornets54c62,235$33,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,748.072,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Hornets54c52,752$28,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,315.9751844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hawks46c46,087$21,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,211.051,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Hawks45c40,000$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,00051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Hawks46c36,090$16,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,601.5211252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Hawks45c31,974$14,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,253.7130845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Hawks48c31,250$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00016752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Hawks45c29,145$13,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,108.953,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Hawks46c25,077$11,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,430.7823245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Hawks46c23,100$10,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,525.9731445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Hornets55c22,790$12,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,293.731,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Hornets54c22,313$11,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,325.3693148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Hawks46c20,499$9,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,429.4728742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks46c20,130$9,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,285.994,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Hornets55c20,000$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,00037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Hawks1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Hornets55c20,000$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.9819653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Hawks45c19,170$8,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,660.2945850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hawks50c18,596$9,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,226.271,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Hawks45c17,450$7,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,852.721,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks50c17,377$8,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,756.164,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Hornets55c17,000$9,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,649.9921951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Hornets54c16,441$8,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,557.724257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Hornets54c15,005$8,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,852.2519150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d0…a31bbacked Hornets55c15,005$8,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,802.294235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x938f…f13fbacked Hawks45c15,000$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7505349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Hawks47c15,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.9715844.9%71 W · 87 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76cb…55d3backed Hawks47c14,289$6,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,679.294445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Hornets53c12,120$6,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,696.47653.9%41 W · 35 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Hawks45c12,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Hornets53c11,868$6,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,577.9217356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Hornets53c11,268$5,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,295.9944352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Hawks1c10,566$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6664517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Hornets55c10,001$5,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,500.4515841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Hawks45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Hawks5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Hornets56c8,929$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,928.5720849.5%103 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Hawks45c8,500$3,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,82587750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Hawks1c8,187$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.175213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked Hawks46c8,001$3,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,680.4614055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Hornets53c8,000$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,759.9613148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe29e…fa35backed Hawks28c7,968$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.2334136.1%123 W · 218 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Hornets50c7,952$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,951.9222458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Hawks11c7,951$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.731,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hawks45c7,898$3,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,553.732,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Hornets56c7,232$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,182.1416042.5%68 W · 92 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79e5…9417backed Hornets54c7,204$3,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,316.826165.6%40 W · 21 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Hornets53c7,000$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,29013249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9575…e916backed Hawks47c6,996$3,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,288.121833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Hawks45c6,833$3,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,074.731,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Hawks48c6,545$3,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.499857.1%56 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3135…26a0backed Hornets56c6,500$3,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,878.084360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Hornets56c6,500$3,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,87519751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Hornets54c6,481$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,981.4841954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Hawks45c6,407$2,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.128649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Hawks47c6,383$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00015435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hawks15c6,276$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.991,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Hawks44c6,059$2,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,686.059344.1%41 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Hornets55c6,000$3,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,73035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Hornets54c5,777$3,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,680.292,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks46c5,689$2,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,591.884,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Hornets54c5,590$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,590.520945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Hawks46c5,099$2,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,345.6615349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Hawks46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Hawks45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25021446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Hornets73c4,981$3,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.8948956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf11a…ac4ebacked Hornets54c4,912$2,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.291020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d2…796ebacked Hornets53c4,798$2,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.829250%46 W · 46 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc22…f48ebacked Hawks47c4,796$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.291258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Hawks45c4,758$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.1265939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Hawks0c4,742$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2327917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Hawks47c4,709$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.4324053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hawks30c4,664$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.232,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f5b…63c9backed Hornets54c4,564$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.211442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+75.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Hawks43c4,500$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.9939349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a6…5090backed Hornets56c4,460$2,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,962.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c26…b97ebacked Hawks44c4,450$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf427…db8bbacked Hawks44c4,440$1,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,953.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7499…9a61backed Hornets56c4,430$2,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d0…7df7backed Hornets56c4,420$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d3…7d68backed Hawks44c4,415$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Hornets52c4,398$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,098.152760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Hawks46c4,343$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99812740.9%52 W · 75 L-15.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x166a…e675backed Hawks50c4,330$2,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,171.922839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ff…16a3backed Hawks47c4,252$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hornets52c4,246$2,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.358,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Hawks44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76018553%98 W · 87 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed Hawks45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8008063.8%51 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Hawks45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80013954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.