TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,985 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bd7…373ebacked Over56c43,774$24,526 inWon+$19,248.179350.5%47 W · 46 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under44c16,976$7,486 inLost-$7,486.069,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeac2…176dbacked Under44c7,240$3,186 inLost-$3,185.6425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under44c6,084$2,677 inLost-$2,677.0324744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under44c4,081$1,785 inLost-$1,785.285,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under44c3,199$1,406 inLost-$1,405.764,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under43c1,512$650 inLost-$6502,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under43c1,500$650 inLost-$6501,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under44c1,284$567 inLost-$567.333,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over56c1,256$703 inWon+$552.646,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under44c1,000$440 inLost-$44071547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under45c873.29$392 inLost-$3923,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under44c281.73$124 inLost-$123.9666646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under43c236.59$102 inLost-$101.593,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Under31c225.26$70 inLost-$69.9955846.8%261 W · 297 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under43c204.08$87 inLost-$86.7691148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under42c196.06$82 inLost-$82.465,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under43c163.48$70 inLost-$70.32,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over60c149.98$90 inWon+$59.993,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under47c127.65$60 inLost-$602,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Under44c113.52$50 inLost-$49.9527943%120 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Over55c100$55 inWon+$4558754.7%321 W · 266 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under39c93.82$36 inLost-$36.472,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Over62c89.32$55 inWon+$34.321,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over67c61$41 inWon+$20.138,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf628…ba6fbacked Under34c50$17 inLost-$178440.5%34 W · 50 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Under45c44$20 inLost-$19.5853839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Over56c35.03$20 inWon+$15.4150841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Over77c32.27$25 inWon+$7.4218957.1%108 W · 81 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Over60c29.72$18 inWon+$11.8140849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b07…869abacked Under45c26$12 inLost-$11.73551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Under44c23.14$10 inLost-$10.1825143%108 W · 143 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Under50c20$10 inLost-$1036350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac8…d2b9backed Over59c18.05$11 inWon+$7.41560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.