NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f054d183e366844690153549a3b6108aa3da1ad9cd15109d9d500a6ca0d05b8

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $54,712
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,712 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x44d4…1970backed Under	52c	19,072$9,918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,917.67	167	52.1%87 W · 80 L	+7.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	51c	11,055$5,668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,667.88	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	10,446$5,012 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,433.72	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23fb…fe50backed Over	49c	7,755$3,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,955.1	51	54.9%28 W · 23 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over	46c	4,348$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,347.83	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cbf…4ec0backed Under	51c	3,960$2,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,019.6	58	58.6%34 W · 24 L	+4.2wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Over	48c	2,500$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,300	387	50.4%195 W · 192 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over	51c	1,531$781 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$750.37	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	49c	1,531$747 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$783.2	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over	50c	1,250$625 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$625	212	47.2%100 W · 112 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	68c	1,200$815 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$385.14	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Over	46c	1,125$519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$606.25	94	40.4%38 W · 56 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	49c	1,125$551 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$573.75	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Over	48c	1,042$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$541.67	304	46.7%142 W · 162 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Over	46c	964.85$444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$521.35	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+6.4wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Over	48c	845.63$406 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$439.73	238	50%119 W · 119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5db5…5df8backed Under	53c	811.85$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.43	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over	69c	811.08$562 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.46	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Under	31c	699.11$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.73	379	30.6%116 W · 263 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	48c	606.35$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$313.93	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4989…8ff0backed Over	50c	600$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	67	71.6%48 W · 19 L	+7.3wins	+0.11per pick	61cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	49c	500$243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55aa…4f8ebacked Under	54c	460.92$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.71	83	44.6%37 W · 46 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d8e…3d55backed Under	53c	375.79$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-9.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	48c	361.31$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.94	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	11c	293.31$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.26	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ccc…585fbacked Over	50c	235$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.5	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	-5.6wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Under	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	201	47.8%96 W · 105 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Under	54c	186.46$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	253	47%119 W · 134 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked Under	54c	164.85$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.59	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Under	31c	141.9$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.55	538	39.4%212 W · 326 L	-26.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe44e…c6b8backed Under	30c	138.46$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7166…cd31backed Under	54c	136.06$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.12	78	46.2%36 W · 42 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	45c	99.62$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.79	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce16…749fbacked Under	54c	98.97$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.19	117	55.6%65 W · 52 L	+6.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73ee…5d16backed Under	54c	93.23$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	63	46%29 W · 34 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf464…0607backed Under	54c	87.62$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.09	97	53.6%52 W · 45 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc79f…d270backed Under	54c	79.22$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.57	127	52%66 W · 61 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	47c	74.99$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.75	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc4…7a41backed Under	53c	73.55$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.98	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb122…8405backed Under	54c	63.71$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.25	50	40%20 W · 30 L	-5.4wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8cf4…f5e5backed Under	54c	62.87$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	86	53.5%46 W · 40 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Under	56c	59.02$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.05	293	51.9%152 W · 141 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9b87…f42dbacked Under	51c	50.67$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.84	75	44%33 W · 42 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97d3…3296backed Under	54c	50.35$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.07	54	37%20 W · 34 L	-7.5wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f37…8fa2backed Under	53c	50.04$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.52	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.32per pick	46cpaid	-77%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6909…8edbbacked Under	54c	47.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.43	56	41.1%23 W · 33 L	-5.0wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde7a…737bbacked Under	53c	46.78$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x522e…02e7backed Under	54c	43.53$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f6b…7e84backed Under	54c	43.04$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.14	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b7…e0e4backed Under	54c	41.98$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.57	51	37.3%19 W · 32 L	-7.1wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over	75c	41.81$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.29	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaeba…d2d8backed Under	54c	38.23$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.55	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc302…7409backed Under	54c	37.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.19	58	46.6%27 W · 31 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	66c	36.66$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb858…7dc3backed Under	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	42%34 W · 47 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Over	64c	34.36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.37	408	49%200 W · 208 L	-12.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Over	48c	29.94$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.57	508	41.7%212 W · 296 L	-11.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec97…a32ebacked Under	54c	28.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under	49c	27.14$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09d2…26aebacked Under	54c	26.39$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	61	60.7%37 W · 24 L	+7.8wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Over	68c	25.91$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.29	160	36.3%58 W · 102 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed Under	52c	25.18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.09	213	57.7%123 W · 90 L	+10.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8775…a0fdbacked Under	53c	22.74$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x937d…d081backed Under	54c	21.84$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x893e…c716backed Under	54c	19.55$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef7…3eb0backed Under	54c	19.31$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event