TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x10b7…e0e4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
102
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Euroleague, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Euroleague at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST5137.3%19 W · 32 L-7.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
NBA — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mavericks vs. Magicbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$42.06
Thunder vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$13.78
Warriors vs. Pelicansbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$16.34
Spurs vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Magic vs. Suns: O/U 218.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$21.52
Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 211.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$11.83
Suns vs. Spursbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$18.47
Kings vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+51.5%+$18.43
Hawks vs. Hornetsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$36.84
76ers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+75.4%+$24.01
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$21.6
Cavaliers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$87.14
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+33.3%+$3.46
Warriors vs. Lakersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$22.23
Hornets vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$24.04
Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$22.57
Nuggets vs. Bullsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+37.3%+$25.57
Jazz vs. Magicbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$14.09
Jazz vs. Magic: O/U 235.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Clippers vs. Kingsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+63.9%+$52.96
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$31.5
Heat vs. Celticsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$60.65
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 213.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+92.3%+$16.38
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+177.8%+$55.8
Hornets vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$29.81
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Sharksbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.38
Flames vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+92.3%+$20.52
Flames vs. Kingsbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.67
Oilers vs. Kingsbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+96.1%+$12.34
Kings vs. Golden Knightsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$19.53
Panthers vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+58.7%+$12.24
Penguins vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$13.91
Penguins vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$16.53
Oilers vs. Flamesbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$23.08
Wild vs. Predatorsbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+81.8%+$14.46
Blackhawks vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+69.5%+$9.9
All 11 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-34.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Lol — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 4 Winnerbacked Oh My God · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+38.9%+$18.72
LoL: Team Vitality vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+122.2%+$21.27
LoL: Disguised vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stagebacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$11.52
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+60.1%+$26.84
LoL: SK Gaming vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked SK Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15.78
LoL: French Flair vs Skillcamp Esport (BO1) - LFL Invitational Souper Groupbacked French Flair · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$14.82
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$81.57
LoL: Natus Vincere vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$18.39
All 8 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-67.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+113.8%+$52.63
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$29.03
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Maccabi Tel Avivbacked Maccabi Tel Aviv · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+257.1%+$31.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Porto vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+194.1%+$53.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG - Map 2 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$7.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+51.5%+$61.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: NRG vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffsbacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+44.3%+$8.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$33.04
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.