TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Bruna Brasil vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Souzaof Brasil, Souza
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$233,475
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$249,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,475 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc660…bd28backed Souza57c80,802$45,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,807.0314558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Brasil43c24,703$10,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,622.2222259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Brasil43c17,500$7,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5259240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Souza56c17,158$9,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,549.6537152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Souza58c12,591$7,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,347.9529151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Brasil43c12,000$5,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,179.997245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Brasil43c11,375$4,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,891.256238.7%24 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Brasil44c10,530$4,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,633.135632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Souza57c10,148$5,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,363.4519544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Brasil42c9,685$4,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,053.2428849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Brasil17c8,909$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.4815939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Brasil43c8,432$3,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,595.7819154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Souza57c7,500$4,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,224.7711746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Brasil43c6,300$2,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,692.876738.8%26 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Brasil44c4,789$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,084.77233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc64e…fd52backed Brasil13c4,521$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.064829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Brasil41c4,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.933735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Brasil50c3,844$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,907.536048.3%174 W · 186 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Brasil43c3,600$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.8130039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Souza57c3,382$1,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.615655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Brasil25c3,342$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.258248.8%40 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Brasil43c2,600$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Brasil43c2,450$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.54839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Brasil8c2,315$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1810522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Souza56c2,227$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98042254.3%229 W · 193 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed2e…2c74backed Souza58c2,152$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Brasil51c2,096$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.8728143.1%121 W · 160 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf05…f8e1backed Souza57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8601376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Brasil27c1,947$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.638434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Brasil17c1,930$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.0720139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Brasil43c1,750$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.53625%9 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Brasil44c1,710$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.57244.4%32 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Souza57c1,614$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.04333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Brasil43c1,598$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6874946.9%23 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Souza57c1,271$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.5335764.7%231 W · 126 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cea…b12dbacked Brasil44c1,250$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501010%1 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick41cpaid-75%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Brasil29c1,108$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.0821247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Brasil34c1,069$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.214131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Souza57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Brasil42c987.2$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.5511140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5db5…5df8backed Brasil44c981.18$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Brasil44c959.09$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4228650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Souza56c900$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed Brasil43c897.75$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.038622.1%19 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Brasil35c887.5$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.827251.4%37 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae9d…d417backed Souza57c757.89$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.894233.3%14 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Souza75c750$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.536745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55aa…4f8ebacked Brasil43c674.46$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.02757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-15.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Brasil43c662.32$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.932437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Brasil41c600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2462254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed Brasil9c543.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.95402.5%1 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-88.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked Souza57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.322236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Brasil25c521.37$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0622438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Souza57c510.24$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.136755.3%203 W · 164 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Brasil41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Brasil43c494.71$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7222661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Souza42c487.61$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.7752252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Souza58c479.99$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ab…7954backed Souza57c438.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Souza56c409.94$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.3710754.2%58 W · 49 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Souza57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17210270.6%72 W · 30 L+10.5wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Brasil42c385$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.77528%21 W · 54 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Souza74c384.3$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.826063.3%38 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Souza16c361.2$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.2427448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Brasil44c320.92$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.091050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Brasil42c319.43$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7512235.2%43 W · 79 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Souza56c299.92$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.972356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Brasil44c275.46$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.092347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed Brasil43c260.47$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11211735.9%42 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7811…6e14backed Souza58c259.96$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.183268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9055…5f46backed Brasil47c250.19$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Brasil41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.514144.7%63 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Souza57c245.61$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6115556.8%88 W · 67 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Souza59c235.78$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6716543.6%72 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Souza57c235.14$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.147154.9%39 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Brasil43c235$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0513940.3%56 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Brasil44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Brasil48c209.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016846.4%78 W · 90 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Brasil48c206.65$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9931855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec71…70ebbacked Brasil48c206.29$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982025%5 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-52.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7166…cd31backed Brasil43c193.78$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf331…ca0bbacked Souza57c182.72$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf9…d6f0backed Souza57c175.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.961050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Souza57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4413267.4%89 W · 43 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8982…59fbbacked Souza57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.446055%33 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2020…7e22backed Souza57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+149%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a68…98aebacked Souza58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4126569.4%184 W · 81 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24c6…234cbacked Souza52c171.63$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.631963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Brasil39c171$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.192236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc65…19a0backed Souza59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.491471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+53.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcebe…0720backed Brasil42c166.04$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-52.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x434c…c096backed Souza17c159.79$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.621225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Souza64c156.06$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6712541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Souza58c153$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.571861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0af…6fc6backed Brasil44c152.46$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abf…6024backed Brasil42c150$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632673.1%19 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Souza56c149.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669256.5%52 W · 40 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe27c…79e0backed Souza58c141.38$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.388964%57 W · 32 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce16…749fbacked Brasil43c139.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Souza59c135.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.599558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.