TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Farid Basharat vs. Jean Matsumoto (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Basharatof Basharat, Matsumoto
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$284,162
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$337,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,162 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed Matsumoto26c48,827$12,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,694.913447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Basharat74c43,612$32,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,445.126850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Matsumoto27c24,553$6,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,578.257233.3%24 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Basharat73c12,160$8,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,242.152871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Matsumoto26c10,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9926743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Basharat73c9,354$6,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,525.549240.2%37 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Basharat73c7,118$5,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.956238.7%24 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Basharat74c7,000$5,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8205653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Matsumoto43c6,842$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,925.341040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Basharat74c6,726$4,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.682152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Matsumoto27c6,669$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.3128849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc64e…fd52backed Matsumoto31c6,352$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.214829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Matsumoto27c6,329$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.6621247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Matsumoto27c6,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.953735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Matsumoto27c4,200$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1346738.8%26 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e62…ef0fbacked Basharat73c4,147$3,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.761643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Matsumoto26c4,057$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.9230039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Basharat77c3,839$2,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.233943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed Matsumoto3c3,362$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.85402.5%1 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-88.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Basharat71c3,086$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.4130964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Basharat74c2,875$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.098058.8%47 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Matsumoto30c2,851$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.168434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Matsumoto27c2,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67520233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Matsumoto27c2,358$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.655642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Matsumoto27c2,313$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.295541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Basharat72c2,257$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.8335253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda16…8e5abacked Matsumoto33c2,164$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.85139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Matsumoto23c2,089$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.83737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Matsumoto28c2,050$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57435826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Basharat73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Matsumoto25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Matsumoto27c1,852$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.2515641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Basharat74c1,469$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.928650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Matsumoto26c1,463$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.072425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ca…d535backed Basharat74c1,351$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.351957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Basharat71c1,332$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3863964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee02…8132backed Matsumoto1c1,300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17446.8%3 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Matsumoto21c1,251$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6535848.3%173 W · 185 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Basharat72c1,205$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.419154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Basharat73c1,171$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.2711364.6%73 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Basharat73c1,165$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.3214558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ba…bbb6backed Matsumoto27c1,110$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003423.5%8 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.19per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Matsumoto28c1,104$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5077…4e7cbacked Matsumoto27c1,100$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Basharat74c1,025$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.4631855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed Basharat75c1,006$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.851080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+38.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Basharat73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27013636%49 W · 87 L-13.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Basharat72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801580%12 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Matsumoto25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25090553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Matsumoto27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcd0…865fbacked Basharat72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Basharat74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26035664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacd2…29a2backed Matsumoto27c999.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27050%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Matsumoto24c985$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.578248.8%40 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Matsumoto21c973.32$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.810546.7%49 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55aa…4f8ebacked Basharat73c879.92$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.58757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-15.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Matsumoto28c876.55$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.784131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Matsumoto35c799.99$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.1620837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a4…f14cbacked Basharat74c730.31$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.881656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa253…7630backed Basharat72c694.99$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.65240.4%21 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Matsumoto26c674.72$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.714348.8%21 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Matsumoto25c661.28$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.325655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Basharat74c600$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15636655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abf…6024backed Basharat74c600$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1562673.1%19 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Matsumoto27c599.85$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9651533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49d…fdefbacked Basharat74c599.79$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.952857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3b…eeb1backed Basharat61c551.72$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.723250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Matsumoto34c550$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18753956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e1…6f5ebacked Matsumoto27c549.98$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.496334.9%22 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Matsumoto26c545.05$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.3328043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Basharat74c543.91$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.4210270.6%72 W · 30 L+10.5wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3d3…e8e1backed Basharat73c541.74$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.273966.7%26 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Matsumoto29c524.97$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4411332.7%37 W · 76 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Matsumoto26c515.95$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.154337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Matsumoto30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507843.6%34 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed Basharat74c486.49$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.493655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcf…327ebacked Basharat73c470.77$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d4…6e9bbacked Matsumoto21c469.48$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Basharat73c410$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.72937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Matsumoto27c405$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3127448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0610…5d4dbacked Matsumoto26c385$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.752020%4 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Matsumoto27c380$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2513940.3%56 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Matsumoto27c337$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.739336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff9d…af7cbacked Basharat73c328.31$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.314259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked Basharat73c309.14$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.472065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Basharat74c300.24$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.248856.8%50 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Matsumoto33c300.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006555.4%36 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Basharat73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817647.4%36 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Basharat73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816451.6%33 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa52e…0519backed Matsumoto26c288.8$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae9d…d417backed Matsumoto27c277.78$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754233.3%14 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Matsumoto27c275$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2520933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a5a…36b4backed Basharat72c264.82$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.91785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+53.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7166…cd31backed Basharat73c264.58$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.44450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Basharat70c254.14$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5115540.6%63 W · 92 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Matsumoto26c250$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6514144.7%63 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c0…af29backed Matsumoto28c248.5$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.624630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe27c…79e0backed Basharat74c239.19$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.198964%57 W · 32 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Matsumoto26c238.06$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.665044%22 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc229…dbeabacked Basharat69c235.87$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.772744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.