TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x05e1…6f5e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NBA, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 57 out of 100; worst UFC at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EST6334.9%22 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 63 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Cody Garbrandt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+138.1%+$220.98
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Ige · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$32
UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Njokuani · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$12.9
UFC Fight Night: Juliana Miller vs. Carli Judice (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Miller · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$68
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Kuniev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+152.8%+$347.08
UFC Fight Night: Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Barriault · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$168
UFC Fight Night: Farid Basharat vs. Jean Matsumoto (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Matsumoto · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$148.49
UFC Fight Night: Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Walker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20.23
UFC Fight Night: Alex Morono vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Morono · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$200.43
UFC Fight Night: Niko Price vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Price · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$56
UFC Fight Night: Wang Cong vs. Eduarda Moura (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Moura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$111.36
UFC Fight Night: Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Wiklacz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+132.6%+$113.99
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$249.55
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$104
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Ruffy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$643Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+100%+$643.03
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Hooker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$258.31
Will Tai Tuivasa win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44
UFC 325: Mullarkey vs. Salkilld (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Mullarkey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$91
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Tuivasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.41
UFC 325: Elekana vs. Tafa (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Tafa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$244.99
UFC 325: Elliott vs. Micallef (Welterweight, Early Prelims)backed Elliott · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$123.9
UFC 325: Yizha vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Early Prelims)backed Ofli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+203%+$72.84
UFC 325: Sangwook Kim vs. Dom Mar Fan (Lightweight, Early Prelims)backed Mar Fan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$336Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+81.8%+$274.76
UFC 325: Lawrence Lui vs. Sulangrangbo (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)backed Sulangrangbo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,775Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$1,775.36
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+222.6%+$205.22
Showing 25 of 63 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+89%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hornets vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+42.9%+$129
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$327Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$400.13
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$517.6
Lakers vs. Kingsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$724Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$1,042.21
All 4 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,776Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+132.7%+$2,356.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$95
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,201Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,200.53
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.