UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Alex Morono vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30cff3a7c04a60da1064e54125a63404950aa35ff0dd304740e3692c9d7778f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Donchenkoof Morono, Donchenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $267,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $289,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x434c…c096backed Morono | 13c | 57,668$7,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,256.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Morono | 12c | 19,881$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.02 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Morono | 12c | 17,864$2,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,143.68 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…01a8backed Morono | 13c | 13,922$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.48 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Morono | 11c | 13,693$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.27 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Morono | 5c | 11,354$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.75 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Morono | 13c | 6,100$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…fd52backed Morono | 5c | 5,298$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.49 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…2497backed Morono | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Morono | 7c | 4,419$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.14 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bca…5c8dbacked Morono | 9c | 4,405$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Morono | 12c | 4,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Morono | 12c | 3,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Morono | 10c | 3,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.09 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Morono | 13c | 2,919$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.26 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Morono | 1c | 2,578$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Morono | 11c | 2,493$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.96 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40f…a5b1backed Morono | 11c | 2,240$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.4 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed Morono | 12c | 2,222$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Morono | 12c | 1,999$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.86 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…6280backed Morono | 11c | 1,568$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.48 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Morono | 11c | 1,273$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…6f5ebacked Morono | 16c | 1,267$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.43 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…ae46backed Donchenko | 78c | 1,119$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.73 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…325dbacked Morono | 12c | 1,078$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe507…1258backed Morono | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Morono | 12c | 895.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Morono | 13c | 874$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.62 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Morono | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Morono | 8c | 815.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed Morono | 11c | 648.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Morono | 12c | 635.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Morono | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Morono | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Morono | 10c | 599.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x012c…478ebacked Morono | 24c | 596.84$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.67 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Morono | 6c | 520$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Morono | 13c | 515.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…80d2backed Morono | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 139 | 40.3%56 W · 83 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Morono | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Morono | 24c | 459.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.19 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…218ebacked Morono | 12c | 448$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Morono | 11c | 440$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Morono | 8c | 438.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked Donchenko | 78c | 413.48$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Morono | 13c | 404$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Morono | 13c | 340$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…6760backed Morono | 14c | 339.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Morono | 18c | 307.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4957…f25ebacked Morono | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Morono | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 102 | 70.6%72 W · 30 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0610…5d4dbacked Morono | 11c | 267.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…af29backed Morono | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Morono | 10c | 240.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…c897backed Morono | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Morono | 13c | 176.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Morono | 12c | 171.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Morono | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.26per pick | 32cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Morono | 17c | 149.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Morono | 14c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…262bbacked Morono | 13c | 134.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Morono | 14c | 129.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2d…deafbacked Donchenko | 75c | 120.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…392fbacked Donchenko | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Morono | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25d…2227backed Morono | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Morono | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x782a…7e7dbacked Morono | 18c | 97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Morono | 15c | 96.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc4…7fb1backed Morono | 17c | 87.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Morono | 20c | 82.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…03c9backed Donchenko | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798d…1b76backed Morono | 23c | 52.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d9…85bbbacked Donchenko | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Alex Morono vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Alex Morono win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Daniil Donchenko win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.