UFC · resolved market
Will Daniil Donchenko win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x169ec5a6c450548f8255829b7bce7461557f966cf6eac489f7e38da2fb1da161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 32c | 1,413$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.99 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 69c | 435.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 64c | 358.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.25 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 36c | 332.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.86 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed No | 32c | 251.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.25 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked No | 50c | 215.71$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 67c | 205$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.05 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…4e79backed Yes | 68c | 171.03$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…231cbacked Yes | 68c | 154.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…eeb1backed Yes | 27c | 84.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…af29backed Yes | 70c | 81.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea0…9f7abacked Yes | 68c | 73.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 70.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes | 68c | 65.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…54c2backed Yes | 69c | 36.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…4517backed Yes | 68c | 29.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…4ce6backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ca…dbe7backed Yes | 68c | 23.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927b…8091backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd9…1159backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniil Donchenko win by KO or TKO?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Alex Morono vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)Donchenko won
- Will Alex Morono win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.