TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FaZeof FaZe, Passion UA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,015,064
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,171,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,015,064 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 649 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e4…c991backed Passion UA30c100,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,999.977363%46 W · 27 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed FaZe70c74,883$52,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,546.8821051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Passion UA31c50,420$15,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,857.7913633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe74a…40eebacked Passion UA32c50,000$16,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,999.872653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Passion UA31c40,000$12,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,399.977646.1%35 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Passion UA32c32,560$10,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,419.26147.5%29 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Passion UA31c27,000$8,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,319.9125842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Passion UA32c26,500$8,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,480.1330340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed FaZe67c25,000$16,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,249.992958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed FaZe68c23,400$15,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,412.0812648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Passion UA25c22,736$5,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,604.644,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed Passion UA23c20,713$4,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,841.061266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FaZe69c17,657$12,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,530.121,72346.8%807 W · 916 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed FaZe70c16,206$11,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,905.7957647.6%274 W · 302 L-25.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked FaZe68c15,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…e838backed FaZe69c14,492$10,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,490.621770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked FaZe71c14,091$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,090.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked FaZe69c13,917$9,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,314.1215050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Passion UA31c12,903$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cbc…a37bbacked FaZe70c12,871$8,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,875.015468.5%37 W · 17 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Passion UA25c12,070$3,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,037.393,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed FaZe69c11,722$8,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,611.0822849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Passion UA32c11,691$3,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,769.591,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a3…4555backed Passion UA27c10,716$2,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,871.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-63.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedb…f657backed Passion UA31c10,561$3,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,273.91520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef92…9df5backed FaZe68c10,509$7,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,362.922972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed FaZe69c10,184$7,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,157.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd36b…d4d4backed FaZe69c10,080$6,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,124.711361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked Passion UA31c10,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,099.9827133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed FaZe68c9,971$6,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,190.7124846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed FaZe76c9,822$7,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,314.3446545.6%212 W · 253 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Passion UA15c8,715$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.4518724.1%45 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e9a…5f9cbacked FaZe70c8,668$6,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,562.264763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked FaZe68c8,510$5,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,723.217148%82 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Passion UA32c8,041$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,560.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Passion UA30c8,000$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,369.9911758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed FaZe69c7,822$5,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,422.9172453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dae…4688backed FaZe68c7,353$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,352.941154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed FaZe67c7,016$4,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,302.8853746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…b2e0backed Passion UA29c6,930$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.594562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+33.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed FaZe68c6,729$4,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,153.2810549.5%52 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Passion UA27c6,640$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.181,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FaZe68c6,503$4,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,078.211,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed FaZe69c6,188$4,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.4119860.1%119 W · 79 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-8.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x78de…b08bbacked FaZe77c6,134$4,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.61747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-31%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Passion UA33c6,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95014934.9%52 W · 97 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1393…ba33backed Passion UA30c5,931$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.3316847%79 W · 89 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ca…679bbacked FaZe71c5,821$4,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,708.721656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked FaZe75c5,612$4,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.1510442.3%44 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x28ba…4e57backed FaZe69c5,581$3,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.167349.3%36 W · 37 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Passion UA32c5,447$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.8613646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Passion UA24c5,368$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.449141.8%38 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked FaZe71c5,316$3,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.8810450%52 W · 52 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Passion UA25c5,193$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.761,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked FaZe71c5,149$3,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.651,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed FaZe69c5,030$3,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.222554.2%122 W · 103 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked FaZe70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50023245.7%106 W · 126 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed FaZe69c4,928$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,527.546956.5%39 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2038…d06abacked FaZe68c4,887$3,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.92580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+88%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3df8…a696backed FaZe55c4,600$2,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,070.33452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Passion UA25c4,527$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.743,25950.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L+98.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed FaZe59c4,500$2,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.997245.8%33 W · 39 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Passion UA33c4,447$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.3614441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed FaZe68c4,412$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.7619448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa44b…18f5backed Passion UA5c4,305$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed FaZe68c4,125$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3204362.8%27 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed FaZe68c4,038$2,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.151656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Passion UA14c4,000$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.315040%20 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Passion UA26c3,957$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.8626351.3%135 W · 128 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Passion UA30c3,909$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.726344.5%117 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6683…de6bbacked FaZe68c3,791$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.369854.1%53 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed FaZe68c3,676$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.4721251.4%109 W · 103 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed FaZe68c3,390$2,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.739239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa50e…1cd9backed Passion UA20c3,335$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6674055%22 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a00…bfc3backed FaZe69c3,333$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.231266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Passion UA30c3,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.97256.9%41 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf48a…3594backed FaZe57c3,309$1,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.714740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-21.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Passion UA22c3,250$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.9961228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf989…47ccbacked Passion UA32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003020%6 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Passion UA30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90072046.1%332 W · 388 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58d…914abacked FaZe71c2,968$2,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.639252.2%48 W · 44 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x414f…29a2backed FaZe68c2,941$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.182458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked FaZe69c2,899$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.1625361.3%155 W · 98 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Passion UA32c2,889$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.9410252%53 W · 49 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed FaZe68c2,879$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.214862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+35.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Passion UA32c2,844$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.0825352.6%133 W · 120 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa50b…74b2backed FaZe73c2,739$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.233545.7%16 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Passion UA32c2,698$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.3112941.1%53 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61b…3984backed Passion UA20c2,600$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.398657%49 W · 37 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaab5…aab4backed FaZe80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5002060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9095…2f3fbacked Passion UA31c2,463$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.988852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Passion UA31c2,300$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72360848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2260…ad28backed FaZe68c2,263$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.21963.2%12 W · 7 L+4.0wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+49.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed FaZe68c2,253$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.1228453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Passion UA23c2,235$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.1142638%162 W · 264 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2195…16f9backed Passion UA32c2,187$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa797…41bebacked FaZe69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6202152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed FaZe68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64058651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Passion UA29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58024139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5945…67cabacked FaZe71c1,984$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.191250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.