UFC · resolved market
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf4e320be9cc1aed9c66e568033cd8d80c019f9dd6c5dceffebe82b22f475eb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gaethjeof Gaethje, Pimblett
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,575,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,801,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,575,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,406 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af1…0f7bbacked Pimblett | 69c | 1,881,333$1,296,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296,985.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Gaethje | 45c | 1,047,078$467,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579,543.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed Gaethje | 32c | 800,000$253,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546,999.92 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Gaethje | 31c | 479,996$148,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331,197.48 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…8d9bbacked Pimblett | 70c | 214,005$150,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150,000 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c28…9e49backed Pimblett | 69c | 195,661$135,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Pimblett | 32c | 179,689$57,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,569.85 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Gaethje | 33c | 137,633$44,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,827.57 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Gaethje | 30c | 134,442$39,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94,725.13 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Pimblett | 68c | 130,000$88,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88,283.03 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…ad45backed Gaethje | 32c | 121,985$39,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,950.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Gaethje | 34c | 120,198$41,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,190.42 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Gaethje | 31c | 65,055$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,054.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…bd43backed Gaethje | 73c | 63,200$45,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,306.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Pimblett | 68c | 63,089$43,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,134.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Gaethje | 37c | 62,753$23,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,713.22 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Gaethje | 32c | 62,464$19,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,475.72 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Gaethje | 31c | 60,895$19,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,882.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ae…3020backed Pimblett | 69c | 57,971$40,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Pimblett | 68c | 51,500$35,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,019.95 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Gaethje | 32c | 50,000$16,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,999.88 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Gaethje | 31c | 50,000$15,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,499.73 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Gaethje | 32c | 44,475$14,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,302.89 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Pimblett | 68c | 44,000$29,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,959.95 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07c…11a0backed Pimblett | 69c | 43,681$30,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,140 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Pimblett | 69c | 40,984$28,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,278.89 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Pimblett | 68c | 39,220$26,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,669.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d04…7a5fbacked Gaethje | 31c | 37,720$11,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,026.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Pimblett | 69c | 35,100$24,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,218.97 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487b…eccbbacked Pimblett | 66c | 34,911$22,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,988.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f67…4dd8backed Gaethje | 31c | 32,300$10,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,287 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…2044backed Gaethje | 32c | 31,253$10,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,251.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Pimblett | 27c | 31,022$8,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,371.16 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…78f1backed Gaethje | 32c | 30,771$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,770.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1057…9ea5backed Gaethje | 31c | 30,000$9,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,700 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d894backed Pimblett | 68c | 29,412$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc29e…a2cabacked Pimblett | 69c | 29,127$20,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,091.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pimblett | 67c | 28,821$19,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,309.85 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Gaethje | 31c | 28,677$8,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,787.2 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Pimblett | 32c | 24,906$7,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,981.11 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Gaethje | 57c | 24,886$14,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,706.75 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Gaethje | 31c | 24,250$7,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,732.45 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Gaethje | 45c | 23,000$10,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,576.78 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…9d83backed Pimblett | 69c | 22,850$15,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,850 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Pimblett | 33c | 21,765$7,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,138.85 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…b6e3backed Pimblett | 68c | 21,210$14,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,500 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297c…deb9backed Pimblett | 69c | 21,163$14,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,602.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Gaethje | 48c | 21,137$10,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,973.94 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…e99bbacked Pimblett | 68c | 21,004$14,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,366.55 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…04e2backed Pimblett | 3c | 20,763$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Gaethje | 31c | 20,000$6,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,799.86 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Gaethje | 38c | 19,707$7,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,187.92 | 277 | 43%119 W · 158 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Gaethje | 33c | 19,631$6,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,077.24 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Gaethje | 32c | 19,300$6,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,124.13 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…9889backed Pimblett | 69c | 18,840$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,999.6 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Pimblett | 68c | 17,800$12,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,104 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Pimblett | 68c | 17,200$11,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,637.32 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pimblett | 32c | 17,058$5,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,397.06 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Pimblett | 42c | 16,622$6,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,916.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…8632backed Gaethje | 58c | 16,585$9,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,969.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Gaethje | 34c | 16,004$5,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,591.59 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ffbbacked Gaethje | 36c | 15,719$5,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,982.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Gaethje | 68c | 15,049$10,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,868.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…c080backed Pimblett | 69c | 15,007$10,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Pimblett | 68c | 15,000$10,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,211.25 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Pimblett | 70c | 14,830$10,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,379.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…8e5abacked Gaethje | 57c | 14,719$8,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,302.14 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…32c8backed Pimblett | 69c | 14,486$9,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,972.32 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Gaethje | 32c | 14,401$4,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,792.49 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Pimblett | 46c | 13,893$6,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,443.08 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…2beabacked Pimblett | 69c | 13,824$9,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,538.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048b…09efbacked Gaethje | 31c | 13,742$4,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,481.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…74e1backed Gaethje | 75c | 13,411$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,411.1 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…6f94backed Gaethje | 31c | 12,800$3,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,840 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Gaethje | 48c | 12,169$5,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,357.3 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Pimblett | 69c | 12,000$8,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,280 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc64e…fd52backed Gaethje | 45c | 11,317$5,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,238.63 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Gaethje | 69c | 11,202$7,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,472.44 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Pimblett | 66c | 10,623$7,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,046.12 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc96…5307backed Pimblett | 68c | 10,450$7,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,105.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Gaethje | 68c | 10,166$6,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,253.89 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…54edbacked Pimblett | 65c | 10,020$6,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,495.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Gaethje | 32c | 10,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,800 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +149.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Pimblett | 67c | 10,000$6,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,700 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…176bbacked Pimblett | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…ff9bbacked Gaethje | 32c | 10,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,800 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd6…84cdbacked Gaethje | 63c | 9,972$6,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,724.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Gaethje | 31c | 9,381$2,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,472.81 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Gaethje | 39c | 9,242$3,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,637.78 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Pimblett | 68c | 9,184$6,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,281.58 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…31cfbacked Gaethje | 32c | 9,000$2,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,080 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Gaethje | 32c | 8,735$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,939.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Gaethje | 75c | 8,676$6,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,133.44 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…b5e3backed Pimblett | 68c | 8,591$5,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,830.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…285dbacked Pimblett | 71c | 8,321$5,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,907.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Gaethje | 31c | 8,291$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,720.64 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Gaethje | 31c | 8,177$2,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,642.41 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Gaethje | 36c | 8,000$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,089.6 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…5066backed Pimblett | 68c | 7,820$5,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,317.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Gaethje | 32c | 7,815$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,314.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.