UFC · resolved market
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8bf3c3da6a5cf8e5ba0e328043370da717a9e8090acf332b1ff80b854089678
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Yes | 24c | 71,518$16,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,835.48 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed No | 76c | 47,922$36,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,312.88 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 76c | 28,164$21,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,655.09 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 77c | 2,691$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.54 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…2411backed No | 77c | 2,600$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 77c | 1,803$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.61 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…3624backed Yes | 56c | 1,583$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…371bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,554$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 59c | 1,466$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.11 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bc94backed Yes | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 76c | 1,159$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.27 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d3…0a4dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +200.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes | 24c | 1,036$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 78c | 898.72$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.79 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…2ff4backed Yes | 23c | 883.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…46b2backed Yes | 25c | 836.1$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 78c | 791.86$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.42 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa167…da89backed Yes | 24c | 730$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 76c | 687.31$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.2 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 24c | 637.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…940ebacked Yes | 49c | 513.25$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…17fcbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes | 23c | 431.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ba…bbb6backed Yes | 23c | 431.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97a3…cd18backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ca…4f9ebacked Yes | 24c | 393.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…2084backed Yes | 29c | 338.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…df76backed Yes | 23c | 328.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 77c | 319.87$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…c713backed Yes | 23c | 317.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0ba5backed Yes | 24c | 314.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46a…c10dbacked Yes | 49c | 306.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 51c | 292.94$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.54 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8a…f727backed Yes | 47c | 274.44$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…1ef5backed Yes | 27c | 274.05$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…868ebacked Yes | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Yes | 24c | 254.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 22c | 239.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 62c | 230.4$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5d…8ebbbacked Yes | 28c | 225.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ef…f729backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…8a7cbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…3385backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61b…723cbacked Yes | 24c | 193.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 16c | 179.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d23…91a2backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed7d…5852backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4991…d4dcbacked Yes | 30c | 173.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…63d0backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea1…9becbacked Yes | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163b…eb9dbacked Yes | 22c | 137$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7575…4380backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 132.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…c74fbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e65…701cbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c81backed Yes | 23c | 110.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fac…f88bbacked Yes | 22c | 101.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…e7c2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…bb2ebacked Yes | 23c | 90.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8501…a7f4backed Yes | 23c | 89.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…978fbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…f74bbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…e465backed Yes | 23c | 85.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb178…1fa0backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea2…d1c1backed Yes | 24c | 77.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…e1f5backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ad…7e3bbacked Yes | 24c | 71.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a6…467cbacked Yes | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…64eebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…90dbbacked Yes | 23c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…99f3backed Yes | 23c | 65.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…e308backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…453abacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…971ebacked Yes | 34c | 58.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…3295backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…078abacked Yes | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…f0f7backed Yes | 38c | 52.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…4c2ebacked Yes | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…c034backed Yes | 24c | 50.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…40c5backed Yes | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a70…2831backed No | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e08…ce71backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb4…db91backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 76c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)Gaethje won
- Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.