TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,100
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,100 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Yes24c71,518$16,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,835.482733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed No76c47,922$36,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,312.884465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No76c28,164$21,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,655.0937152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Yes20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No77c2,691$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.5411761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x991a…2411backed No77c2,600$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No77c1,803$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.6121247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f9c…3624backed Yes56c1,583$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked Yes23c1,554$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No59c1,466$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.1127448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bfa…bc94backed Yes23c1,304$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No76c1,159$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.279053.3%48 W · 42 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d3…0a4dbacked Yes26c1,154$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+200.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes24c1,036$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No78c898.72$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.794665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7434…2ff4backed Yes23c883.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4a0…46b2backed Yes25c836.1$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No78c791.86$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.426475%48 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa167…da89backed Yes24c730$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No76c687.31$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.220249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Yes24c637.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4d…940ebacked Yes49c513.25$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f5…17fcbacked Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes23c431.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ba…bbb6backed Yes23c431.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003423.5%8 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.19per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x97a3…cd18backed Yes24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22ca…4f9ebacked Yes24c393.33$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.55922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96e…2084backed Yes29c338.35$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e28…df76backed Yes23c328.29$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.791216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-55.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No77c319.87$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.981457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+42.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58f2…c713backed Yes23c317.58$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32eb…0ba5backed Yes24c314.25$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.422458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc46a…c10dbacked Yes49c306.4$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No51c292.94$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.546451.6%33 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb8a…f727backed Yes47c274.44$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9945…1ef5backed Yes27c274.05$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735020%10 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-48.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf946…868ebacked Yes23c260.87$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Yes24c254.2$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb232…8709backed Yes22c239.41$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.761546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed No62c230.4$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6990553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b5d…8ebbbacked Yes28c225.28$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ef…f729backed Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa40e…8a7cbacked Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5995…3385backed Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd61b…723cbacked Yes24c193.04$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+51.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Yes16c179.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.753040%12 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d23…91a2backed Yes23c173.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed7d…5852backed Yes23c173.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4991…d4dcbacked Yes30c173.84$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ecb…63d0backed Yes34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbea1…9becbacked Yes38c140$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x163b…eb9dbacked Yes22c137$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7575…4380backed Yes37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes21c132.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3219418.6%36 W · 158 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf747…c74fbacked Yes23c130.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e65…701cbacked Yes25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ced…6c81backed Yes23c110.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fac…f88bbacked Yes22c101.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+40.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfc38…e7c2backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2212639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaef9…bb2ebacked Yes23c90.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8501…a7f4backed Yes23c89.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300d…978fbacked Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x013f…f74bbacked Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c8…e465backed Yes23c85.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb178…1fa0backed Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ea2…d1c1backed Yes24c77.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10fe…e1f5backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ad…7e3bbacked Yes24c71.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a6…467cbacked Yes17c71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.076663.6%42 W · 24 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b97…64eebacked Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e97…90dbbacked Yes23c66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9844…99f3backed Yes23c65.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f31…e308backed No80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed No80c62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4118145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b4c…453abacked Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…971ebacked Yes34c58.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+113.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x535e…3295backed Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Yes27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed No78c55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.87580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b05…078abacked Yes24c54.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb01…f0f7backed Yes38c52.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddfe…4c2ebacked Yes37c51.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1f…c034backed Yes24c50.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1092…40c5backed Yes48c45.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+59.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a70…2831backed No79c44.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e08…ce71backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdb4…db91backed No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed No76c25.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1556450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.