UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d83f99a580d25eafbb58ea29276359177047fef45fbebf53d00cd458f54c999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2938…f251backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 54c | 3,813$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.23 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3523…a266backed Yes | 44c | 2,297$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.99 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…5912backed Yes | 41c | 1,370$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 48c | 461.68$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.08 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 58c | 452.78$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.27 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb294…0e2bbacked No | 60c | 334.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…a6efbacked Yes | 48c | 279.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Yes | 44c | 278.83$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 43c | 268.48$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.58 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1811…789dbacked No | 54c | 257.04$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 42c | 236.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Yes | 43c | 231.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe665…79bbbacked Yes | 45c | 222.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…d4d3backed No | 66c | 214$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…ccf2backed Yes | 35c | 212.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d23…91a2backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8c…c7b4backed Yes | 50c | 200.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81ff…6938backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 56c | 191$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.04 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 186.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe174…f74bbacked No | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bd…1cd0backed No | 61c | 166.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…63bebacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 50c | 148.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 65c | 145$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f0…bf7dbacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…98b3backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe014…f0f9backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes | 48c | 98.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…c942backed Yes | 47c | 96.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…28b8backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…e7c2backed Yes | 46c | 71.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…e308backed No | 71c | 70.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11bd…caa7backed No | 74c | 67.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…a90abacked No | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 39c | 64.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 42c | 58.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da9…e9c7backed Yes | 39c | 56.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…e301backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…39ddbacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…3385backed Yes | 48c | 51.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…66d8backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25de…ec0ebacked No | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d96…0be4backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked No | 69c | 47.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64a…ed3cbacked Yes | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd3…c14bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdc…c895backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…0e07backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd94…7393backed Yes | 46c | 40.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088c…c851backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…a633backed Yes | 52c | 38.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…cce9backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…90dbbacked Yes | 45c | 31.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5836…4d03backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…1ef5backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…49bcbacked No | 57c | 29.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc48b…6c1ebacked No | 68c | 29.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a70…2831backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32b…94cabacked No | 58c | 24.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7c…c499backed Yes | 49c | 20.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…90b7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…b5b5backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked No | 59c | 19.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)Gaethje won
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.