UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b6c72d6808a44e4e75a5c45fc0ec8e0e70c9cff326d3645b487959a32f48d96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 30c | 832.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 29c | 790.42$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.22 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…241dbacked Under | 38c | 777$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…e6babacked Over | 62c | 616$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked Under | 35c | 563.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…e6d1backed Under | 38c | 483$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…c580backed Over | 62c | 480$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Over | 64c | 477.97$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.07 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 70c | 286.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…66c2backed Over | 70c | 274.1$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Over | 70c | 237.47$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…2f5abacked Over | 62c | 229$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…f692backed Under | 38c | 229$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…9698backed Over | 62c | 164$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 47cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Over | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 30c | 73.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa675…5ffbbacked Over | 70c | 63.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0267backed Under | 20c | 51.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…93fcbacked Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…2084backed Under | 39c | 38.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 31c | 35.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…1ddebacked Over | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0923…c83fbacked Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)Gaethje won
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.