UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd152f0c9a7c7d451612d815956a5bc0758a6f5318e639915bae4264248437d90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 2,538$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.07 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 53c | 2,314$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.11 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec5…946abacked Over | 59c | 2,107$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Over | 56c | 1,429$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.57 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Under | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 45c | 839.97$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.68 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 45c | 768.48$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.82 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Over | 53c | 606.15$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.35 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.08 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 46c | 469.97$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 55c | 360.59$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.74 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Under | 47c | 299.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcc…e083backed Over | 54c | 276.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…a82bbacked Over | 54c | 253.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf068…6184backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…55a7backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4adb…982ebacked Over | 55c | 181.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2c…6d37backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3644…671abacked Over | 53c | 175.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c27…1f35backed Over | 55c | 172.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…be02backed Over | 54c | 171.61$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Under | 9c | 151.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…28d4backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Over | 55c | 87.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 44c | 83.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Over | 54c | 76.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Over | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…fc06backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Over | 54c | 55.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb320…bcf3backed Over | 55c | 54.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 53c | 53.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…9b3fbacked Under | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -6.7wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…93fcbacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…5d99backed Over | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 42.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d92…2e20backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Under | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…06e5backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bf…231fbacked Over | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…f901backed Over | 55c | 23.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Under | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…fcc7backed Over | 56c | 21.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc1…c4b9backed Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…eacfbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)Gaethje won
- Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.