TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe6c8…cce9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 52 out of 100; worst NBA at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the fight be won by submission?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+75.4%+$15.09
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$56.69
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Chimaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$22.46
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirierbacked Poirier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveirabacked Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-Francebacked Pantoja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicanobacked Moicano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malleybacked Dvalishvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+37%+$36.99
Muhammad vs. Della Maddalenabacked Muhammad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopesbacked Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+51.1%+$71.59
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblettbacked Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$26.67
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-37.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$240
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+150%+$30
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$367Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+25%+$91.73
NBA Finals G7: Will Haliburton score 15+ points against the Thunder? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$270.37
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 12 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump tariffs on Mexico in effect by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$539Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$538.76
All 2 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bryson DeChambeau win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Turkey win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.