NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals G7: Will Haliburton score 15+ points against the Thunder?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f3936d46e9763a5df514cf677f474659a0afb3307b24f72e2fe5c95dd04884a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d5…df2fbacked Yes | 57c | 2,105$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +347.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3093…fdb0backed Yes | 1c | 1,484$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 44c | 1,227$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.81 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed No | 46c | 1,052$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.69 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed No | 46c | 600$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.5 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…b5c3backed No | 49c | 492.16$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.78 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 58c | 425.96$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 43c | 289.52$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…61d1backed Yes | 54c | 279.42$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 44c | 261$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.42 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca72…a02abacked Yes | 56c | 187.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…cce9backed Yes | 56c | 179.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Yes | 56c | 177.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…4d3abacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 46c | 164.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…7778backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes | 55c | 148.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 49c | 144.88$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 51c | 135.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ef…e955backed Yes | 57c | 105.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…2c0bbacked Yes | 67c | 105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…8445backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…2393backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 48.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b02…a231backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 52c | 19.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d4…c87ebacked Yes | 56c | 18.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.