TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$554,970
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$561,734

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $554,970 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c00…a074backed Yes54c116,885$63,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,650.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c7…d675backed No46c116,842$53,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,630.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb403…06f0backed No42c73,112$30,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,707.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc536…b4aebacked Yes58c73,112$42,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,707.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed No45c7,629$3,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,417.911,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No79c3,088$2,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,438.111,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcce8…b692backed Yes37c3,000$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9052100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+137%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe223…752abacked Yes37c2,900$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8272100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick36cpaid+182.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1cc…d4dbbacked Yes37c2,700$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7011100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a52…119abacked Yes37c2,700$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf034…ef3dbacked Yes37c2,700$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ae…fc14backed Yes37c2,700$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick37cpaid+174%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de8…5d68backed Yes37c2,700$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+68.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eae…a570backed Yes37c2,700$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7012100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+141.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96b3…dde6backed Yes62c2,600$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b18…9f0dbacked Yes37c2,600$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+37%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes13c2,533$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.686113.1%8 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No39c2,529$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.6718246.7%85 W · 97 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ac…107dbacked Yes37c2,500$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick37cpaid+174%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b2…158fbacked Yes37c2,500$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick37cpaid+174%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f66…10d0backed Yes37c2,100$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x264c…8250backed Yes66c1,914$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.784261.9%26 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed No35c1,732$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.175628.6%16 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+104.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9760…f3b9backed No64c1,550$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8411…677cbacked Yes7c1,543$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.16714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+95.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf70…3222backed No63c1,520$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3d4…3265backed No64c1,450$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49d…7a8cbacked No64c1,450$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d02…c0bfbacked No63c1,450$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa85…c1a7backed Yes16c1,429$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.78825%2 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+147.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a67…5b72backed No64c1,420$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe272…9f13backed No63c1,400$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88230%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No5c1,396$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d3…4ac3backed No63c1,380$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7644…3189backed No64c1,350$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f1…5cd2backed No64c1,350$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcd1…2a75backed No64c1,350$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb265…12c7backed No64c1,350$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aad…9337backed No64c1,320$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe840…18e8backed No63c1,300$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x898f…7b55backed No64c1,280$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20e6…350fbacked No64c1,280$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3316…52c1backed No64c1,280$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe528…1511backed Yes28c1,264$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.03633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6be…3456backed No64c1,250$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dab…6c5bbacked No64c1,250$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa7…9af9backed No63c1,250$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f55…52e4backed No64c1,250$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1746…7c59backed No64c1,220$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes47c1,219$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.0576249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a2d…f5efbacked No63c1,100$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed No38c1,099$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.821353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2534…41c9backed Yes23c1,082$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.14520%9 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9821…c8acbacked No63c1,000$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes21c941$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+54.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49a…e4a2backed Yes38c808.72$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.7450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes34c661.86$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43922750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0cc8…e458backed Yes46c654.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.418634.9%30 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08fa…a865backed Yes9c561.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.82347.8%11 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+90.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes11c466.71$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.3713743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes49c458.11$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.075230.8%16 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No9c456.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40984.1%4 W · 94 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf020…a576backed Yes14c407.5$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.4115724.2%38 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes74c388.25$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1325845%116 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71f9…8518backed Yes61c370.35$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.643743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc354…de11backed No57c369.56$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes26c344.95$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.791250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No49c335.46$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.3624549%120 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed No45c307.15$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.181216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-73.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No36c304$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.09387.9%3 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed Yes42c294.12$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.741414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+370.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe268…2feabacked No71c287.18$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87c5…4fa3backed Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1504337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x78ed…dbdcbacked Yes79c250$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532937.9%11 W · 18 L-5.8wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-40%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No32c248.28$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.741,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06f7…9c2fbacked No57c245.85$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No15c238.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7385347.9%409 W · 444 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes42c220$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.032326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8250…842abacked No5c219$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed Yes42c214$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.73475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No9c211.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20795.1%4 W · 75 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b64…f10fbacked Yes26c189.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3378…ae62backed Yes18c166.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick24cpaid+218.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c97…7d03backed No12c154$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x86e2…2f3ebacked No10c150.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-63.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f5…9f1bbacked Yes44c147.63$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.062100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1a7…05d6backed Yes55c140.33$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.59771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…3a15backed No12c140$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No46c138.6$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.086113.1%8 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes31c136.01$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.9586.9%4 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b39…0ab3backed No59c135.42$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b52…39c6backed No12c123$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Yes13c120.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2410131.7%32 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0001…7840backed No12c119$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x781c…1a5ebacked Yes44c116.12$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+129.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeca…cbe9backed No58c114.62$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e0…0fedbacked Yes77c106$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.39650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb208…d68dbacked Yes43c102.35$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.35560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7420…c03bbacked No65c101.02$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.66450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855139.2%20 W · 31 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+71.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.