NBA · resolved market
Will Alexandre Sarr win NBA Rookie of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4309b8c3f983344eaaf63d7e9ef4cdff48ecbe8f08c264c91a7f412444c0a36f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 7,840$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 6c | 3,929$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…c1a7backed Yes | 4c | 1,393$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,014$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…a865backed Yes | 15c | 974.31$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 10c | 918$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 8c | 896.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 891.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 8c | 705.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…a6afbacked Yes | 5c | 676.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5f…3d64backed Yes | 6c | 580.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Yes | 8c | 556.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +370.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 70c | 472.71$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.13 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 11c | 466.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…8ef1backed Yes | 7c | 380$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 6c | 220$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…3b38backed Yes | 32c | 89.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf982…915abacked No | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…1ff7backed Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 70c | 42.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 234 | 38.9%91 W · 143 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d77…058dbacked No | 71c | 42.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +197.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 60c | 21.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c5…34d6backed No | 67c | 16.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 71c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alexandre Sarr win NBA Rookie of the Year?this page
- Will Carlton Carrington win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Donnovan Clingan win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Jaylen Wells win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year?Yes won
- Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.