NBA · resolved market
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf60737d907ae31b4103e44ff74d91df9a2d7f9872acd2b297a81a09b7323791a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $712,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $340,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $712,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 19,485$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 0c | 14,689$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 95 | 16.8%16 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,286$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 213 | 0.5%1 W · 212 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6274…1823backed Yes | 0c | 8,002$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd8…2dd9backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked No | 55c | 1,937$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.64 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…7bc3backed Yes | 1c | 1,927$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 5c | 826.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 14c | 755.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 17c | 591.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +410.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 514.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 50c | 513.52$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.52 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 58c | 507.33$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.22 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 4c | 485.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 432.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 52c | 332.38$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 54c | 313.57$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.33 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…9e36backed Yes | 53c | 225.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 14c | 143.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15c9…a416backed Yes | 54c | 142.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…5b14backed No | 45c | 106.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…fbbcbacked Yes | 54c | 69.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 67.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 58.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…add1backed Yes | 55c | 54.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…a765backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…27d4backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ed…dfe8backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e4…c153backed Yes | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…bfd5backed Yes | 54c | 32.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…bf9bbacked No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked No | 47c | 31.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d7…62d0backed Yes | 54c | 28.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b23…7c56backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8550…90f7backed Yes | 56c | 24.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…9a9abacked Yes | 56c | 22.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670f…1f3bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…7f2bbacked Yes | 61c | 18.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year?this page
- Will Alexandre Sarr win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Carlton Carrington win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Donnovan Clingan win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Jaylen Wells win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year?Yes won
- Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
- Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.