TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x670f…1f3b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst NFL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$85.5
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+143.9%+$29.5
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11.4
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$35
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$25
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$22
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$29.1
Crimean bridge hit before 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+25%+$4
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2025, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-China trade deal before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.4
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.9
Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$19.19
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+319.2%+$53.3
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$11.2
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$22.8
Mike Johnson out as Speaker before inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+49.3%+$6.6
Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+149.2%+$44.9
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Nancy Mace's trans bathroom bill pass in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+52.5%+$11.8
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.42
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$25.8
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Germany confidence vote in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST-100%-$39.17
Will John Mahama be the next President of Ghana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST+33.9%+$16.89
Will the Social Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST+92.3%+$9.6
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12.16
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$26.96
Chiefs vs. Billsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$20.7
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+57.4%+$10.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.59
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+68.6%+$20.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dogecoin reach $0.45 before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST+127.3%+$33.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$10.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$12.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.