World Politics · resolved market
Germany confidence vote in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb5a40596eeffd8a2443f401f0b92603bc6815f85f9c24b7e54f2c8cb7845ec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $386,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $400,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $386,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 2c | 14,348$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.31 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 1c | 12,206$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…6a22backed No | 23c | 8,027$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 8,012$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.73 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16d…7f0bbacked No | 16c | 7,943$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706f…605fbacked No | 5c | 7,911$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c5…d5a0backed No | 21c | 7,142$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…4547backed No | 1c | 6,867$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…2abdbacked No | 19c | 5,343$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 75c | 5,250$3,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 4c | 4,712$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.28 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd369…9e8ebacked No | 1c | 4,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e9…5293backed Yes | 38c | 4,137$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,546.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +113%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…b7fbbacked No | 16c | 3,944$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…b06ebacked No | 47c | 3,480$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked No | 17c | 3,108$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +189.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04e…5ce8backed No | 10c | 3,042$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked No | 20c | 2,999$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…f8dcbacked No | 1c | 2,919$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…9bc0backed No | 2c | 2,912$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71c…dcecbacked Yes | 74c | 2,684$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 57c | 2,671$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 78c | 2,664$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.98 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…c557backed Yes | 54c | 2,458$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 36c | 2,396$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.3 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…1acdbacked No | 41c | 2,344$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…3fedbacked No | 50c | 2,255$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 5c | 2,225$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed No | 30c | 2,177$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 32c | 2,024$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…6bb9backed No | 5c | 1,727$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked No | 1c | 1,680$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f71…9c46backed No | 46c | 1,666$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.95 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 1,597$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…ce4abacked No | 4c | 1,569$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…d129backed No | 10c | 1,561$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x623d…18c2backed No | 5c | 1,504$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 74c | 1,481$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.78 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 8c | 1,468$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 16cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 61c | 1,468$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c8…14aebacked No | 4c | 1,451$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 41c | 1,440$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.25 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 42c | 1,413$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.38 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1dc…88fabacked No | 1c | 1,409$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6320…ee59backed No | 40c | 1,406$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…1eb0backed No | 22c | 1,345$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…a303backed Yes | 71c | 1,306$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…4b21backed No | 44c | 1,272$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf344…063dbacked Yes | 66c | 1,269$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 1,228$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 33c | 1,087$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.28 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 22c | 1,083$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.65 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b7…1d81backed No | 6c | 1,075$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…7f9bbacked No | 64c | 1,055$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1457…e1f6backed No | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7006…6455backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 54c | 998.99$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.56 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 70c | 979.83$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.74 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 47c | 953.01$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 35c | 936.24$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.64 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 39c | 935.84$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…502ebacked No | 2c | 931.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465f…8046backed Yes | 54c | 924$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…ccf4backed Yes | 35c | 887.55$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…d20abacked No | 58c | 887.5$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a5…30f8backed No | 2c | 883.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8a…50fbbacked No | 3c | 833.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes | 48c | 832.55$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.74 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6217…2d0bbacked No | 31c | 825.67$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 14c | 749.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 68c | 736.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…79c8backed No | 3c | 691.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…3d9abacked Yes | 67c | 684.39$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…dfb0backed No | 22c | 684.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…7134backed No | 15c | 670$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d94…e71cbacked No | 51c | 668.81$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e50…235dbacked Yes | 47c | 650$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…a588backed No | 65c | 642.78$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed No | 36c | 640$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…0079backed No | 39c | 624.95$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…e14ebacked No | 2c | 610.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 585.61$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.14 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d34…b9fdbacked No | 3c | 571.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…a285backed Yes | 68c | 564$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…4b34backed Yes | 32c | 558.83$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 46c | 556.2$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d7…1934backed No | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…0a88backed No | 2c | 549.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 39c | 538.04$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.84 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…7d06backed No | 4c | 528.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…e5afbacked No | 37c | 524.89$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…e66dbacked No | 29c | 524.03$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…96e6backed Yes | 49c | 512.62$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb612…c6b0backed No | 41c | 512.2$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0d…38a1backed No | 76c | 511.52$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 69c | 504.99$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…e6f6backed No | 21c | 501.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5a…2d96backed No | 17c | 488.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc05a…0ae1backed Yes | 42c | 481.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.