Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x394851952cb613c24a24b9eb695b828617545a40b4c0013ddc16222ea68561f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,514,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,377,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,514,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 448 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd366…7d4fbacked Yes | 11c | 182,987$21,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,020.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c8…46e0backed Yes | 2c | 148,529$3,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,345.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…98a1backed Yes | 1c | 142,446$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…c5aebacked Yes | 6c | 119,637$6,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,961.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 11c | 115,766$12,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,224.27 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 5c | 96,561$4,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,516.85 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ce…a5bcbacked Yes | 4c | 55,488$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,073.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda26…4386backed Yes | 15c | 50,148$7,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…b309backed Yes | 3c | 47,451$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 46,607$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713c…cea2backed Yes | 3c | 33,713$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…11dfbacked Yes | 16c | 33,471$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Yes | 13c | 33,469$4,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,426.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4716…5b50backed Yes | 6c | 32,157$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…ca31backed Yes | 2c | 30,512$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bba…a195backed Yes | 3c | 30,294$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af6…25afbacked Yes | 2c | 30,109$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes | 17c | 26,020$4,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,411.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdb…09e6backed Yes | 6c | 25,232$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9206…5b3ebacked Yes | 19c | 24,115$4,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,689.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc96…16e4backed Yes | 1c | 23,539$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 2c | 21,824$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.09 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…618fbacked Yes | 5c | 21,816$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442c…4e39backed Yes | 2c | 21,051$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…e9f8backed Yes | 5c | 20,886$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked Yes | 8c | 20,233$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 20,081$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.05 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 2c | 19,952$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.54 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 3c | 19,140$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Yes | 14c | 17,054$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 2c | 16,127$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…c024backed Yes | 6c | 14,356$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.47 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…454abacked Yes | 1c | 14,201$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…3d63backed Yes | 6c | 14,022$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…dd3fbacked Yes | 4c | 13,955$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…72d5backed Yes | 7c | 13,461$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 7c | 13,362$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.57 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 3c | 13,322$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…4cdebacked Yes | 3c | 13,237$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…d678backed Yes | 10c | 12,830$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae66…e2b6backed Yes | 16c | 12,803$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,008.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe6…2003backed Yes | 12c | 12,219$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb776…f9e8backed Yes | 4c | 12,003$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…2b23backed Yes | 9c | 11,801$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes | 7c | 11,215$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 5c | 11,088$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.95 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 10,856$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.46 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2951…8f9fbacked Yes | 3c | 9,743$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.61 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +307.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30d…8c52backed Yes | 16c | 9,631$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a4…c8a2backed Yes | 6c | 8,493$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b7…671ebacked Yes | 4c | 8,371$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 7c | 8,169$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.19 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83a…2a7ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,120$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b9…3ae9backed Yes | 3c | 7,858$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779e…bcdabacked Yes | 16c | 7,334$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…7eb2backed Yes | 3c | 6,770$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7611…de5bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,681$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc476…8715backed Yes | 3c | 6,483$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc3…6cf2backed Yes | 3c | 6,156$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6107…6d97backed Yes | 12c | 6,084$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd0…d211backed Yes | 5c | 6,069$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68b6…3f6fbacked Yes | 11c | 5,981$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.96 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes | 6c | 5,724$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Yes | 1c | 5,710$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88af…593ebacked Yes | 16c | 5,684$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…4dacbacked Yes | 4c | 5,659$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 8c | 5,532$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…e90dbacked Yes | 21c | 5,497$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked No | 80c | 5,413$4,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c616backed Yes | 21c | 5,126$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 4c | 5,108$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.83 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4159…6c30backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.46 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…bfbabacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 4c | 4,764$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…9051backed Yes | 14c | 4,761$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…b8c6backed Yes | 1c | 4,730$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 11cpaid | +307.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,593$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1962…ffb3backed Yes | 3c | 4,512$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…0378backed Yes | 7c | 4,404$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…8155backed Yes | 15c | 4,372$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3050…e5b4backed Yes | 2c | 4,288$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17bc…514fbacked Yes | 19c | 4,236$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3be…cdb3backed Yes | 3c | 3,974$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7c…a4afbacked Yes | 1c | 3,964$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…6a42backed Yes | 2c | 3,809$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2d…8479backed Yes | 4c | 3,808$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…4403backed Yes | 5c | 3,749$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…0025backed Yes | 4c | 3,634$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…9b4dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,564$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…e7eebacked Yes | 3c | 3,556$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fa…2c35backed Yes | 3c | 3,539$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 12c | 3,509$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.93 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…054fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,500$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d5…92debacked Yes | 3c | 3,426$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cda…cf57backed Yes | 6c | 3,423$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…ff18backed Yes | 3c | 3,412$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f9…ca94backed Yes | 5c | 3,393$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed No | 78c | 3,317$2,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -84%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…4d4ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,096$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 13c | 3,027$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.03 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.