TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$954,091
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$930,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $954,091 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 418 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No3c38,782$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c31,949$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.94240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Yes57c29,534$16,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,639.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No13c29,123$3,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,828.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6194…e72abacked No21c22,496$4,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,679.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Yes60c19,419$11,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,789.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea9…10febacked No6c18,370$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.82110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c16,536$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.89480%0 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f63…5b31backed No37c13,300$4,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,974.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed No2c10,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked No9c9,930$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed No10c9,476$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No6c8,631$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No1c8,111$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2a…1915backed Yes63c6,800$4,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,543.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes69c6,713$4,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee08…6923backed Yes63c6,500$4,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No3c6,340$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.51530%0 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Yes63c6,242$3,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,312.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c60…9c5ebacked No8c6,219$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb30…5057backed Yes79c6,141$4,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe68f…c0f8backed Yes79c6,016$4,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d04…ba35backed No0c5,937$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No5c5,818$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed No1c5,722$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No1c5,423$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cfa…5480backed Yes79c5,203$4,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ba…99dabacked Yes79c5,136$4,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3052…9d3abacked No4c5,026$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a11…b8f9backed No5c4,937$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…d611backed No5c4,315$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f47…457fbacked No11c4,289$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked No2c4,100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9bc…d5f1backed No3c3,957$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3316…9b21backed No1c3,800$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Yes69c3,596$2,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.69119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-86.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No28c3,472$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56fc…9991backed No1c3,400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1780%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed No3c3,350$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.990%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked No15c3,218$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No2c3,179$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No39c3,157$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes76c3,012$2,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked Yes73c2,980$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb94f…04d8backed No1c2,829$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e07…4dddbacked No0c2,794$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa03…2927backed Yes77c2,579$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No4c2,567$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes66c2,555$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…9a7fbacked No8c2,546$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d13…f637backed No49c2,270$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e3…3464backed No19c2,230$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked No6c2,100$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x590a…3699backed Yes67c2,063$1,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a83…9516backed No8c2,049$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes67c2,018$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4af…e0cbbacked No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No13c1,839$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No1c1,821$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No1c1,674$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x748f…59d0backed No12c1,537$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No1c1,522$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7f…ed6fbacked No33c1,507$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49670%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…ea79backed No9c1,488$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No3c1,424$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b24…4598backed No14c1,416$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1804…bd47backed Yes73c1,388$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No1c1,354$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No4c1,310$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1603…301cbacked Yes72c1,300$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3313…8355backed No11c1,199$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed No1c1,184$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No5c1,173$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda8c…4f04backed No11c1,146$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a1…0016backed No9c1,141$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ab…25dbbacked No11c1,110$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ea…ed2ebacked No11c1,085$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed4…ac30backed No9c1,083$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1838…5903backed No9c1,013$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes74c1,010$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f2…d8efbacked Yes68c1,007$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3501100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0100…a303backed No3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed Yes65c986.93$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2baf…1ed4backed No14c977.45$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa53…96f7backed No12c945.67$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed No8c940.4$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e2…9631backed No58c869.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc88a…7e26backed No3c860.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x636b…1987backed No12c827.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2fa5backed Yes60c815.57$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3814…f0bfbacked Yes77c799.34$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9569…5633backed Yes55c794$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ab…47f1backed No45c794$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e3…39cfbacked No45c794$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb265…b999backed Yes55c794$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b4…efc6backed Yes63c781.08$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb805…bedfbacked Yes64c778.2$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb5…8685backed Yes80c750.15$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ae5…f51dbacked No37c738.04$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.