Poker · resolved market

Will 3 Coin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10b0761fd0412d6ea433ced8d4b0aa589c11831aee0f6f96383468526c979818

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,550,835
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,746

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,550,835 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Poker
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5414…d916backed Yes	0c	96,192$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x425e…99c4backed Yes	0c	96,192$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…7482backed Yes	0c	96,192$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.19	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cba…b0bebacked Yes	0c	84,654$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5af0…5c59backed Yes	0c	84,654$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e84…6f4abacked Yes	0c	84,654$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5aa…6f12backed Yes	0c	84,654$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1380…2a4bbacked Yes	0c	84,654$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92f7…cb5fbacked Yes	0c	84,654$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c0…bd7cbacked Yes	0c	84,654$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e02…4769backed Yes	0c	84,654$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e6…0714backed Yes	0c	84,654$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa3…d659backed Yes	0c	84,654$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73aa…b149backed Yes	0c	83,766$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.77	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c11…a9d5backed Yes	0c	83,766$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.77	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9752…20febacked Yes	0c	83,766$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.77	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x135b…c33cbacked Yes	0c	83,766$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.77	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ec…9058backed Yes	0c	83,766$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.77	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd92b…cd58backed Yes	0c	83,766$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.77	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60a3…2b94backed Yes	0c	83,766$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.77	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8409…d5cdbacked Yes	0c	83,766$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.77	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3474…5ba8backed Yes	0c	60,971$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fe8…c082backed Yes	0c	60,971$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e6e…4d93backed Yes	0c	60,971$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb50a…7f80backed Yes	0c	60,971$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbcb3…4a8abacked Yes	0c	60,971$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78bf…eb20backed Yes	0c	60,971$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7380…7859backed Yes	0c	60,971$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x726a…f94cbacked Yes	0c	60,971$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1472…10cdbacked Yes	0c	41,964$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xada1…9de5backed Yes	0c	41,614$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf836…e257backed Yes	0c	41,614$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0357…147cbacked Yes	0c	41,614$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda24…847abacked Yes	0c	41,614$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07a7…23f3backed Yes	0c	41,614$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdea3…22f1backed Yes	0c	41,614$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a3…96b7backed Yes	0c	30,186$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b35…90c6backed Yes	0c	30,131$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.05	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes	0c	23,778$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.78	48	0%0 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes	0c	15,029$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.03	18	0%0 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0cd…7014backed Yes	0c	11,101$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	13	0%0 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will 3 Coin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event