TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,533,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$101,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,533,633 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5df7…7505backed Yes0c2,563,614$2,564 inLost-$2,563.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7d…0413backed Yes0c2,272,453$2,272 inLost-$2,272.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf646…e220backed Yes0c1,962,767$1,963 inLost-$1,962.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6358…80a6backed Yes0c1,947,802$1,948 inLost-$1,947.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd85f…8d1ebacked Yes0c1,826,166$1,826 inLost-$1,826.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fd…f6cebacked Yes0c1,704,422$1,704 inLost-$1,704.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa5…29f7backed Yes0c1,639,069$1,639 inLost-$1,639.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x015b…eb8ebacked Yes0c1,582,677$1,583 inLost-$1,582.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeec…75bdbacked Yes0c1,567,966$1,568 inLost-$1,567.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32a2…0a43backed Yes0c1,420,351$1,420 inLost-$1,420.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe790…acadbacked Yes0c1,121,581$1,122 inLost-$1,121.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45c1…abdbbacked Yes0c801,129$801 inLost-$801.1340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0662…cdacbacked Yes0c600,847$601 inLost-$600.8530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x053b…2b6ebacked Yes0c600,847$601 inLost-$600.8530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b4…09f0backed Yes0c280,395$280 inLost-$280.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fee…b57dbacked Yes0c212,977$213 inLost-$212.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes0c40,060$40 inLost-$40.06480%0 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf917…5a82backed Yes0c40,056$40 inLost-$40.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6cf…1f5abacked Yes0c21,512$22 inLost-$21.5130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c21,000$42 inLost-$42240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4230…b1febacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ef…56f2backed Yes0c16,371$16 inLost-$16.3780%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$11130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$11130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae1…bab3backed Yes0c10,512$11 inLost-$10.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c10,245$11 inLost-$11.06270%0 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c5…1d0abacked Yes0c10,071$10 inLost-$10.0770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x910e…29bcbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost-$20580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5675…f99cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3836…3739backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes1c2,000$21 inLost-$21210%0 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc63…2a62backed Yes1c1,344$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a12…9d86backed Yes1c1,259$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.