Poker · resolved market

Will Ryan Feldman win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e7e472e1f4b0f5a9e88c0d086053ef51bb4dc150cf861bef48232447d3b636

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,151,301
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,107

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,151,301 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Poker
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5414…d916backed Yes	0c	105,876$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.88	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x425e…99c4backed Yes	0c	105,876$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.88	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…7482backed Yes	0c	105,876$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.88	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cba…b0bebacked Yes	0c	87,376$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5af0…5c59backed Yes	0c	87,376$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e84…6f4abacked Yes	0c	87,376$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5aa…6f12backed Yes	0c	87,376$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1380…2a4bbacked Yes	0c	87,376$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92f7…cb5fbacked Yes	0c	87,376$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c0…bd7cbacked Yes	0c	87,376$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e02…4769backed Yes	0c	87,376$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e6…0714backed Yes	0c	87,376$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa3…d659backed Yes	0c	87,376$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73aa…b149backed Yes	0c	86,476$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c11…a9d5backed Yes	0c	86,476$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9752…20febacked Yes	0c	86,476$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ec…9058backed Yes	0c	86,476$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd92b…cd58backed Yes	0c	86,476$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60a3…2b94backed Yes	0c	86,476$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8409…d5cdbacked Yes	0c	86,476$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x135b…c33cbacked Yes	0c	86,466$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.47	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes	0c	29,334$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	53	0%0 W · 53 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	0%0 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes	0c	16,864$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.86	13	0%0 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes	0c	15,710$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.71	48	0%0 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0cd…7014backed Yes	0c	14,602$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa16e…10e7backed Yes	0c	6,040$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x741a…534ebacked Yes	0c	4,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9756…9f95backed Yes	7c	171.36$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ryan Feldman win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event