Poker · resolved market

Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95339d66be14aa33347e3543f37a7ccb5ffd38ba3afb21862e0384f06d8e997c

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,113,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $92,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,113,495 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Poker
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaa5c…6e44backed Yes	0c	5,096,316$5,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,096.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c92…1f85backed Yes	0c	2,659,649$2,660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,659.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf751…24d2backed Yes	0c	2,646,649$2,647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,646.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0662…cdacbacked Yes	0c	1,714,598$1,715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,714.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x053b…2b6ebacked Yes	0c	1,714,568$1,715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,714.57	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a9…4c48backed Yes	0c	326,247$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc8…4971backed Yes	0c	116,305$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf30c…0e96backed Yes	0c	42,286$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1b79backed Yes	0c	42,286$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f51…fbe9backed Yes	0c	42,286$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee96…a261backed Yes	0c	42,286$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7010…7712backed Yes	0c	42,286$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9832…4217backed Yes	0c	42,286$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x087c…62d3backed Yes	0c	42,286$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ab8…81efbacked Yes	0c	42,286$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa253…f9abbacked Yes	0c	42,286$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce4…cd85backed Yes	0c	42,286$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ae5…f51dbacked Yes	0c	32,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes	0c	23,547$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	48	0%0 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4138…2a24backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7b2…7a5fbacked Yes	0c	19,393$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc8…f0b6backed Yes	0c	13,443$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3b…99d7backed Yes	0c	13,443$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4de1…18a2backed Yes	0c	13,167$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.17	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45c1…abdbbacked Yes	0c	11,321$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.32	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	53	0%0 W · 53 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	0%0 W · 58 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…9f3dbacked Yes	0c	7,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8798…e58cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event