TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Mike Matusow win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,988,546
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,988,546 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x65b2…3bedbacked Yes0c92,971$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef5a…c956backed Yes0c88,555$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…15b1backed Yes0c88,461$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d5…a96cbacked Yes0c87,243$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa50c…20b3backed Yes0c81,362$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b5b…797dbacked Yes0c81,274$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2159…9b86backed Yes0c70,077$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35ae…b3adbacked Yes0c67,689$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d07…9fb9backed Yes0c67,253$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf687…c861backed Yes0c63,676$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0903…58e3backed Yes0c62,141$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea5…727ebacked Yes0c58,965$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a6…ad8cbacked Yes0c58,446$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31f8…d126backed Yes0c57,359$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd2…c839backed Yes0c57,242$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7fe…9fc0backed Yes0c57,180$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf7d…a359backed Yes0c57,162$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc9b…a39bbacked Yes0c56,785$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e6…710cbacked Yes0c56,755$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba9…804dbacked Yes0c56,696$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9d…4cf9backed Yes0c56,690$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd280…5cc5backed Yes0c56,534$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab98…2c25backed Yes0c56,415$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa487…cc15backed Yes0c56,387$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee73…81c0backed Yes0c56,330$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8360…fdabbacked Yes0c56,152$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c7…c2acbacked Yes0c56,120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aaa…3320backed Yes0c56,077$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a9c…d119backed Yes0c55,905$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ca…033fbacked Yes0c55,801$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x262f…5f37backed Yes0c55,708$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9758…cc5bbacked Yes0c55,561$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f8e…0239backed Yes0c55,282$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa357…6c03backed Yes0c52,906$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x926e…6d5abacked Yes0c46,683$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5d8…72a0backed Yes0c38,236$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa3…a1fabacked Yes0c37,517$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299c…793fbacked Yes0c37,195$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7176…0968backed Yes0c36,963$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc623…24d7backed Yes0c36,521$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51a1…7cebbacked Yes0c35,588$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f83…bbcfbacked Yes0c34,860$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c92…b2f6backed Yes0c34,444$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…d3d0backed Yes0c34,336$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce6c…99edbacked Yes0c33,949$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0860…4741backed Yes0c33,617$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba42…6f1fbacked Yes0c33,420$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccbb…95acbacked Yes0c33,281$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…1576backed Yes0c33,191$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5201…79eabacked Yes0c32,905$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5894…3629backed Yes0c32,729$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe33e…616dbacked Yes0c32,641$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13cd…d105backed Yes0c32,524$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf35c…05bfbacked Yes0c32,288$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8964…d2c1backed Yes0c32,186$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaa6…84a3backed Yes0c31,904$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1253…e5dabacked Yes0c31,248$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1be2…2d9dbacked Yes0c30,553$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…3049backed Yes0c30,491$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b9…9e4bbacked Yes0c30,166$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1476…4078backed Yes0c30,010$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc08b…cdb3backed Yes0c29,719$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x214d…0331backed Yes0c29,664$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f05…439bbacked Yes0c29,411$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa466…9c24backed Yes0c29,179$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4cb1backed Yes0c29,149$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes0c28,975$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39530%0 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20f0…300cbacked Yes0c27,677$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e6…f91fbacked Yes0c27,387$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02fb…05a8backed Yes0c27,358$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60c7…db30backed Yes0c26,744$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5115…9997backed Yes0c26,512$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf2…89d2backed Yes0c26,323$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c0a…7f48backed Yes0c25,827$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…0938backed Yes0c25,245$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d47…edf9backed Yes0c25,073$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbad…0d81backed Yes0c24,864$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ff…283dbacked Yes0c24,461$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c0…3b44backed Yes0c24,316$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc63d…d12fbacked Yes0c23,581$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0df…fd0cbacked Yes0c20,801$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4230…b1febacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d9a…b0cabacked Yes0c19,847$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc7…1eb3backed Yes0c18,762$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes0c11,362$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.36480%0 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e0e…1741backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c9,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18480%0 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf456…2cd7backed Yes0c6,167$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…b8c8backed Yes0c6,051$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5196…403ebacked Yes0c5,995$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e29…6afbbacked Yes0c5,010$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0370%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7f…ed6fbacked Yes1c1,994$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1370%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes1c1,622$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.95210%0 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.