TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Erick Lindgren win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,836,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,031

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,836,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2fa0…1a98backed Yes0c2,175,466$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,175.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fee…b57dbacked Yes0c1,890,152$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45c1…abdbbacked Yes0c1,788,259$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.2640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa439…ca7abacked Yes0c1,644,898$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc8…f0b6backed Yes0c1,640,556$1,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,640.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc8…4971backed Yes0c1,535,018$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3b…99d7backed Yes0c1,497,903$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a9…4c48backed Yes0c1,284,652$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3228…ccfdbacked Yes0c59,836$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6627…407fbacked Yes0c53,649$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfd…b7c3backed Yes0c53,649$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9300…0972backed Yes0c53,649$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80dc…cd5bbacked Yes0c53,649$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6631…c4b6backed Yes0c53,649$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb0…9b25backed Yes0c53,649$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb85b…a73ebacked Yes0c53,649$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x525d…ac4bbacked Yes0c53,649$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cc7…8894backed Yes0c39,455$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd3…2d2fbacked Yes0c39,447$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f75…c996backed Yes0c39,447$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4b…3d9cbacked Yes0c39,447$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d60…d794backed Yes0c39,355$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x541f…30e7backed Yes0c39,355$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x800a…f658backed Yes0c39,355$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2db9…220ebacked Yes0c39,355$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8705…8147backed Yes0c39,355$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b66…c90bbacked Yes0c39,355$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x209c…eaabbacked Yes0c39,355$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8907…fbedbacked Yes0c39,248$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b15…9260backed Yes0c27,590$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes0c22,590$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes0c21,164$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.16480%0 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5713…2cd8backed Yes0c18,390$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ef…56f2backed Yes0c16,781$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes0c13,695$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19530%0 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa517…33efbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc190…02aebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1394…2b7cbacked Yes1c6,324$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.69190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c5,100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ea9…10febacked Yes0c5,029$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac3…16f6backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c2,810$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.03480%0 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc63…2a62backed Yes0c2,112$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.