TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,146,039
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$577,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,146,039 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c62,244$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.82180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a23…c4afbacked Yes0c51,569$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2e…8313backed Yes0c51,413$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a3…4a44backed Yes0c51,162$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc238…c594backed Yes0c51,118$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2f6…48f7backed Yes0c50,769$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd1…0a54backed Yes0c50,722$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca7e…efd9backed Yes0c50,686$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d70…82d8backed Yes0c50,632$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x741b…713bbacked Yes0c50,598$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90f…e1e5backed Yes0c50,507$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3475…c090backed Yes0c50,505$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…45f1backed Yes0c50,106$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x432a…5d86backed Yes0c50,061$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fec…b6edbacked Yes0c50,033$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa24f…593dbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c2e…aa8fbacked Yes0c49,874$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4af3…f2febacked Yes0c49,821$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a52…bbc5backed Yes0c49,675$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc394…bb96backed Yes0c49,648$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c00…b48ebacked Yes0c34,648$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf913…844dbacked Yes0c34,569$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86c…5a0ebacked Yes0c33,967$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c31,515$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.52240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes0c21,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-78.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes0c18,598$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066a…59ddbacked Yes0c18,104$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dca…ee84backed Yes0c16,919$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28a2…2ac7backed Yes0c16,750$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x138e…d04dbacked Yes0c16,713$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf24b…2e14backed Yes0c16,713$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeac5…e826backed Yes0c16,442$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3959…29e9backed Yes0c16,429$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c16,344$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.74270%0 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18cf…4a0ebacked Yes0c14,440$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ea…6083backed Yes0c14,127$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c11,742$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.43480%0 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda4…9199backed Yes1c10,500$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x867f…3281backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c9,414$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4471…5594backed Yes1c9,173$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9a8…674dbacked Yes1c8,989$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes1c7,150$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3530%0 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7814…70d2backed Yes1c7,092$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8859…18cebacked Yes1c7,080$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c73…6dccbacked Yes1c7,070$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc7a…00bcbacked Yes1c7,060$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4041…abd6backed Yes1c7,030$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55c4…3751backed Yes1c7,020$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ee…52cabacked Yes1c6,399$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad8…16f7backed Yes0c6,186$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5194…cd01backed Yes0c6,154$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe093…146cbacked Yes0c6,019$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5355…2166backed Yes1c5,898$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b91…fdf9backed Yes1c5,841$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee4…69f1backed Yes1c5,230$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea4…d1d4backed Yes1c5,041$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef5…547ebacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd733…b175backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes0c2,946$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f5…aab2backed Yes1c2,936$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91a9…ec28backed Yes1c2,437$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5196…403ebacked Yes1c1,835$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8798…e58cbacked Yes1c1,614$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbab9…9d74backed Yes1c1,465$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Yes3c1,234$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0290%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc1…88c8backed Yes1c1,204$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef0…8ea6backed Yes2c734.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a7…9e8dbacked Yes1c679.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes2c575$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.75210%0 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.