TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Matt Berkey win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,270,148
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,270,148 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41d0…6b47backed Yes0c116,397$116 inLost-$116.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2f…c09cbacked Yes0c96,664$97 inLost-$96.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d75…5558backed Yes0c96,664$97 inLost-$96.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x754b…c0f9backed Yes0c96,664$97 inLost-$96.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…390fbacked Yes0c78,931$79 inLost-$78.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…4cf9backed Yes0c78,931$79 inLost-$78.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x268e…9d0cbacked Yes0c78,931$79 inLost-$78.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0c…29aebacked Yes0c76,931$77 inLost-$76.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ad…c411backed Yes0c74,931$75 inLost-$74.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bd1…dbedbacked Yes0c59,199$59 inLost-$59.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…fd4dbacked Yes0c59,199$59 inLost-$59.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x779e…7f43backed Yes0c57,199$57 inLost-$57.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0165…1705backed Yes0c39,466$39 inLost-$39.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes0c39,325$39 inLost-$39.32480%0 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes0c28,599$68 inLost-$68530%0 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes0c27,590$28 inLost-$27.5960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0cd…7014backed Yes0c18,633$19 inLost-$18.6360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…9088backed Yes1c6,117$37 inLost-$36.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8724…b691backed Yes0c5,424$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c5,260$15 inLost-$15.02480%0 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c5,100$15 inLost-$15.3240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.