Poker · resolved market

Will Justin Young win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0947ea5d498ab1f76a5eadc9f0ffe655533fa0b636c26f877c9f1acaf30fc7e1

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,324,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $116,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,324,028 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Poker
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x27ef…5749backed Yes	0c	221,240$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a1b…8e02backed Yes	0c	118,438$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2b3…c3b7backed Yes	0c	118,438$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc904…b4f0backed Yes	0c	118,438$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ace…f2a7backed Yes	0c	118,438$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9455…a968backed Yes	0c	118,438$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd954…1092backed Yes	0c	118,438$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f18…fe74backed Yes	0c	118,438$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedaf…f81cbacked Yes	0c	118,438$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae64…fe29backed Yes	0c	98,698$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ad5…04f1backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ad…f37cbacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b66…b2f4backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a01…70f9backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7694…085fbacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e8…3ff1backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf07b…d62dbacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf04f…00d5backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…cb61backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9604…5fe6backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43bb…5ddabacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…f6a1backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5e2…bf0dbacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe614…b53ebacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3a2…a14abacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa481…b137backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf08d…ce96backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb348…6f30backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b27…f126backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7919…414abacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x633b…3ea1backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53fc…f487backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a0…707ebacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…b281backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8091…8170backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0bc…f8a2backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0a…9097backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6140…f0ccbacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5155…cf3abacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68d1…ff99backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61e0…98a7backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8de2…097dbacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe823…11a7backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb013…51d5backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x859b…e7edbacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b3…fbf5backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfae5…428cbacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65c0…eebfbacked Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68b2…9567backed Yes	0c	78,958$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a26…d147backed Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a83…a3c9backed Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0bd…8895backed Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc13f…d81fbacked Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41fb…b0a1backed Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x552e…726cbacked Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd523…3daabacked Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2775…e438backed Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb642…bccfbacked Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea6e…0b8fbacked Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b8f…aa49backed Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a39…5f6cbacked Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7197…7fe1backed Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ec…a53ebacked Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd361…f67fbacked Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c16…d99bbacked Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2aaa…6298backed Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee0a…476fbacked Yes	0c	67,133$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1240…6419backed Yes	0c	65,800$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes	0c	65,387$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.39	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabf…3a6cbacked Yes	0c	60,739$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.74	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93ad…d3eebacked Yes	0c	52,202$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4e7…e3adbacked Yes	0c	52,202$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…d40dbacked Yes	0c	40,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91ab…8312backed Yes	0c	39,479$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55c5…8730backed Yes	0c	39,479$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	31,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes	0c	30,517$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.52	53	0%0 W · 53 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc3…72bebacked Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes	0c	12,547$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	48	0%0 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes	0c	10,981$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	27	0%0 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	0%0 W · 58 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ecf…ef6dbacked Yes	1c	6,083$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	3,407$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	48	0%0 W · 48 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes	1c	2,401$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Justin Young win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event