TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Frank Crivello win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,898,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$142,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,898,449 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e8b…b588backed Yes0c1,940,961$1,941 inLost-$1,940.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2740…ce55backed Yes0c1,843,913$1,844 inLost-$1,843.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb00…2261backed Yes0c1,649,817$1,674 inLost-$1,674.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f43…763dbacked Yes0c1,649,817$1,674 inLost-$1,674.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa5…7433backed Yes0c1,465,778$1,466 inLost-$1,465.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc529…4f91backed Yes0c1,465,768$1,466 inLost-$1,465.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e15…81f7backed Yes0c756,123$781 inLost-$781.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x132c…54b2backed Yes0c657,055$682 inLost-$682.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes0c93,791$117 inLost-$116.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d4…184fbacked Yes0c48,524$49 inLost-$48.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes0c42,025$42 inLost-$42.03480%0 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0cd…7014backed Yes0c32,961$33 inLost-$32.9660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8a4…2969backed Yes0c31,006$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e7c…3618backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c9,308$11 inLost-$10.77270%0 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x886b…6695backed Yes1c6,100$31 inLost-$30.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1350…bb7ebacked Yes0c6,095$24 inLost-$24.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c4,514$19 inLost-$18.62480%0 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c3,100$19 inLost-$18.6240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x731e…7e14backed Yes0c2,684$11 inLost-$10.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9694…73bcbacked Yes0c2,656$11 inLost-$10.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1446…4f82backed Yes5c1,091$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed3…1e90backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5642…ce43backed Yes3c666.67$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2df…8f35backed Yes3c500$15 inLost-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.