TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Jason Koon win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,966,856
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$242,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,966,856 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c63,000$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6074…23b3backed Yes0c59,129$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x868c…cc48backed Yes0c59,129$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a20…dd2bbacked Yes0c59,129$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc46b…2a11backed Yes0c59,129$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac04…bf28backed Yes0c59,129$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c9…53bcbacked Yes0c59,129$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x061a…179bbacked Yes0c59,129$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc25c…69b8backed Yes0c59,129$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb087…f34fbacked Yes0c59,129$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4230…b1febacked Yes0c40,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6e1…983ebacked Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c08…0a95backed Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8039…f6adbacked Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb251…220abacked Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99d…e534backed Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed4…6980backed Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b7…1780backed Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9912…745dbacked Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3300…39bebacked Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ff…6155backed Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa545…8df3backed Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7426…6b1cbacked Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b6e…4175backed Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…1181backed Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b57…5c9ebacked Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc09e…18b5backed Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f3…1241backed Yes0c39,420$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c36,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf81f…4372backed Yes0c34,379$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes1c27,537$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.41530%0 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Yes0c24,164$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.37119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-86.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2db9…220ebacked Yes0c19,710$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc190…02aebacked Yes0c16,500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c15,936$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.79270%0 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c12,673$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.98480%0 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x021e…984ebacked Yes0c11,847$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f1b…c599backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed Yes3c10,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90fc…064fbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e7c…3618backed Yes0c9,513$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5194…cd01backed Yes1c9,100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…ea79backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda8c…4f04backed Yes0c7,167$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c64…4f3dbacked Yes0c6,357$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23aa…24e1backed Yes0c6,049$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6986…3921backed Yes0c6,019$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d4…1b12backed Yes0c5,184$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bfd…a7a1backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77cf…4a81backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x886c…a9fbbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1394…2b7cbacked Yes1c4,201$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.01190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfa5f…276fbacked Yes1c4,039$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cee…a307backed Yes0c3,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ef…56f2backed Yes1c3,001$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2480%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8798…e58cbacked Yes0c2,760$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae8…0e50backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc3…72bebacked Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes6c2,197$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.1970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6202…a1fcbacked Yes1c1,717$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ea9…10febacked Yes1c1,684$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75b5…d3debacked Yes1c1,613$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Yes4c1,501$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1390%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-78.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18210%0 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c408$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.