TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Rob Riggle win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,337,949
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$205,882

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,337,949 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x261c…9e01backed Yes0c2,392,438$2,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,392.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0399…adedbacked Yes0c2,390,424$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6399…ec29backed Yes0c2,181,612$2,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,181.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0e…5a04backed Yes0c2,181,612$2,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,181.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b70…af09backed Yes0c2,107,659$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0400…916fbacked Yes0c2,070,682$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,070.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b0…6842backed Yes0c2,054,100$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…7414backed Yes0c2,054,100$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b63…0f4dbacked Yes0c1,216,220$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd00b…6da4backed Yes0c1,215,433$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x611e…1deebacked Yes0c1,215,433$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f6…9780backed Yes0c1,214,218$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd16…0925backed Yes0c1,182,191$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6f…9dfbbacked Yes0c1,182,191$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf689…3436backed Yes0c1,109,294$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f7…4cc9backed Yes0c1,109,294$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac68…4cb4backed Yes0c1,109,294$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4647…17e3backed Yes0c1,109,294$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b86…a5c3backed Yes0c1,109,294$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x963f…ab75backed Yes0c1,109,294$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebd7…c4a2backed Yes0c1,086,518$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa982…725dbacked Yes0c1,086,518$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11c0…d397backed Yes0c1,035,341$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e13…fb6cbacked Yes0c1,035,341$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4138…2a24backed Yes0c66,329$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89a6…b639backed Yes0c60,600$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e46…786dbacked Yes0c58,730$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6b4…88dbbacked Yes0c58,609$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c62…01f8backed Yes0c57,054$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ed…eee8backed Yes0c56,831$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59ba…b589backed Yes0c56,440$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x040a…3b8ebacked Yes0c56,320$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474e…9406backed Yes0c54,655$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cd…58aebacked Yes0c53,781$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7a…01b5backed Yes0c53,757$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd786…3da8backed Yes0c41,712$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a3c…9890backed Yes0c41,712$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5708…6ff0backed Yes0c41,712$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c5e…6fa9backed Yes0c41,712$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc89c…0d96backed Yes0c41,281$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb416…6f7ebacked Yes0c40,856$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5b…fb34backed Yes0c40,856$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1ae…99b0backed Yes0c40,856$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c6…9c38backed Yes0c40,065$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa936…992bbacked Yes0c39,627$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05be…dd95backed Yes0c39,525$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bde…8e0bbacked Yes0c39,522$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1302…473dbacked Yes0c39,522$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a62…25a6backed Yes0c39,520$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d7…4546backed Yes0c39,413$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…ab6fbacked Yes0c39,411$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…c72ebacked Yes0c39,406$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfea…ce17backed Yes0c39,406$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd5…337cbacked Yes0c39,322$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe137…29d1backed Yes0c39,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7aa…d920backed Yes0c38,970$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4928…7d5ebacked Yes0c38,856$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd25e…114dbacked Yes0c38,646$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9231…74b3backed Yes0c38,633$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa590…eababacked Yes0c38,600$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d7…55adbacked Yes0c38,600$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1bb…e239backed Yes0c38,425$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03fa…56ebbacked Yes0c38,411$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d35…6b71backed Yes0c38,400$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe37…ce2dbacked Yes0c38,125$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacc…e484backed Yes0c37,654$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8627…0ea2backed Yes0c37,626$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b3d…2293backed Yes0c37,599$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9bb…7eebbacked Yes0c37,533$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x286b…273ebacked Yes0c37,432$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d2…8e2bbacked Yes0c37,324$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598b…4c64backed Yes0c36,549$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5af4…fc9abacked Yes0c36,505$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb82…4b63backed Yes0c35,977$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb11…1d66backed Yes0c34,344$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6cf…1f5abacked Yes0c29,922$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaadb…9b41backed Yes0c20,425$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes0c14,375$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.37480%0 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c13,668$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2270%0 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…8585backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ae5…f51dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…3ce1backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.