TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Jonathan Jaffe win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$406,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $406,455 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x652d…46b3backed Yes0c30,605$38 inLost-$38530%0 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e29…6afbbacked Yes0c25,300$51 inLost-$50.670%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c15,573$31 inLost-$31.15240%0 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost-$20580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3f…3d7ebacked Yes0c9,075$27 inLost-$27.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c9,000$18 inLost-$18480%0 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2926…db27backed Yes0c6,198$19 inLost-$18.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c3…f59abacked Yes0c6,130$18 inLost-$18.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1885…be4fbacked Yes1c6,109$31 inLost-$30.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1462…d9cebacked Yes0c6,105$24 inLost-$24.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd84a…7b6cbacked Yes0c6,071$24 inLost-$24.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8537…1244backed Yes1c6,048$36 inLost-$36.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3084…b8e4backed Yes0c6,045$24 inLost-$24.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$10110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes0c3,800$15 inLost-$15.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes1c3,000$21 inLost-$2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908f…35a8backed Yes1c2,459$12 inLost-$12.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8952…df27backed Yes1c1,575$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7e5…ace5backed Yes2c1,140$25 inLost-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.